FX.co ★ 26.01.2022: Investors flee from risky assets to gold - Outlook for Brent, USD/RUB, GOLD.

26.01.2022: Investors flee from risky assets to gold - Outlook for Brent, USD/RUB, GOLD.

Oil continues to gain value. After a 4% rebound from $89 per barrel on Monday, oil prices managed to reach the $88 mark on Tuesday. However, today's growth potential for the asset is quite modest. On the one hand, fears of possible oil shortages are growing, and simmering political tensions continue to generate new risks. On the other hand, today, the focus of market participants is on the Fed meeting. The prospect of an interest rate hike could have a severe impact on the value of oil. If the regulator raises its interest key rate, speculative demand will decrease significantly. In case the rate remains unchanged, oil will have every chance of surging to the psychological level of $90 per barrel again. Brent crude oil futures traded upwards but then slowed down in the area of $88 per barrel, entering the accumulation phase. If the price consolidates above $88.35, Brent crude will resume its bullish run. However, the level of $89 per barrel has acted as resistance more than once. Thus, the asset’s another attempt to overcome this mark may well lead to a slowdown followed by a rebound. Despite its obvious oversold status, the Russian currency continues to drift around 79 rubles per dollar. The reason is still political uncertainty. This time, the ruble was weighed down by US President Joe Biden’s speech. He said he would consider adding direct sanctions on the Russian President. This possibility will become real only if Russia invades Ukraine. All this adds fuel to the already tense situation. Nevertheless, close attention of market players is now being paid to another major event - the Fed meeting. Today, the regulator will most likely keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged until the spring and will just reveal its action plan to tighten monetary policy. Given the media buzz about a possible sudden rate hike, the outcome of the meeting could result in a sharp decline in the US dollar across the board, including against the Russian currency. From a technical point of view, following a few days of volatile trading, the dollar/ruble pair’s rapid upward movement gave way to short-term stagnation. Thus, the quotes entered the range limited by the levels of 78.25 and 79.50 rubles per dollar. In this case, the best tactic is to trade with a view to breaking through one or another boundary, analysts believe. In anticipation of the Fed meeting as well as amid a sell-off in the stock market and growing political tensions around the world, the precious metal continues to advance. In other words, gold is gaining on losses incurred by other markets. Today, the metal is trading in a strong bullish trend. Thus, gold prices have recently risen to $1,850 per ounce. Given the overall situation, it can be assumed that investors will keep fleeing from risky assets to safe havens. This means that gold has every chance of extending gains. In the meantime, the asset’s temporary stagnation was followed by its further upward movement. Since December, gold prices have added more than 5%. Thus, the outlook for the metal remains bullish. The local highs posted in November last year, $1,865 and $1,875 per ounce, can be seen as resistance levels. Well, the assets’ dynamics still depend on political factors and the outcome of the Fed meeting. Market participants are hoping to receive some clues about the future of the monetary policy. May your trading be lucrative! See you soon!


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