FX.co ★ Jackroay | EUR/USD

I continue to analyze the EUR/USD market situation by combining technical structure with market sentiment, and I see a very interesting imbalance forming in favor of further upside pressure. I note that only 28 percent of traders are holding long positions while 72 percent are positioned short, and I interpret this as a strong contrarian signal. I believe such a skewed sentiment often attracts large players who aim to push price higher to trigger stop-losses above resistance. I prefer to align myself with this potential institutional behavior, and I remain biased toward buying the EUR/USD pair along the broader trend. I observe that historically the pair often shows explosive upward movement when sentiment reaches the 30/70 threshold, and I see current conditions as fitting that pattern well. I look at the daily chart and I see that since July the pair has been trading in a flat range with a clear northern bias. I see a rebound from the lower boundary of the channel near 1.1490, and I recognize this move as the foundation for the second upward wave. I observe that two upward and two downward subwaves have already formed inside the channel, and I see the second downward subwave ending recently. I expect Friday’s close near the support line to act as a springboard for renewed growth. I consider buying zones between 1.1709 and 1.1850–1.1860 to be technically justified within this structure.

I also acknowledge that recent sessions lacked strong momentum, and I notice that Thursday and Friday were particularly quiet, reinforcing the idea of a corrective phase rather than a new trend. I do not expect a decisive breakout ahead of the weekend, and I anticipate continued range-bound behavior with limited volatility. I project a move toward the 1.1730 area on Monday, followed by a mild pullback below the 1.1700 level, and I see this as normal channel behavior. I observe on the hourly chart that price has reached the channel boundary, and I expect at least a technical rebound from this area. I remain cautious about liquidity conditions, and I expect spreads to widen, creating short-term distortions that can confuse indicators. I notice that a bearish daily pattern formed on Friday, and I accept that sellers may attempt another push lower early next week. I still expect a pre-New Year rally, but I believe it is more likely to develop later rather than immediately. I recognize the presence of a sweet spot near 1.1670, and I admit that a deeper correction cannot be ruled out. I see the current decline as a corrective move within a larger bullish structure, and I plan to consider short positions only after confirmed consolidation below the trend line. I intend to use Fibonacci retracement to assess correction depth, and I expect the final week of the year to reveal whether the move toward the 200-day moving average will materialize.