FX.co ★ absh kaat | USD/CHF

I am reviewing my selling idea carefully, and I must admit that so far the market has not provided any meaningful declines that would clearly support a bearish continuation. I note that Thursday closed with a bullish candlestick, and I interpret this close as a sign that buyers are still confident and willing to defend current price levels. I see the price currently trading around 0.8033, and I consider this positioning to be constructive for further intraday growth rather than immediate weakness. I observe that buying targets have formed on the hourly chart, and I personally view this structure as technically justified given the recent price behavior. I identify the first upside objective at the 161.8 Fibonacci extension near 0.8052, and I believe this level is highly achievable within today’s trading session. I also recognize the second target at the 261.8 Fibonacci level around 0.8096, and I see this as a realistic continuation target if bullish momentum strengthens. I acknowledge the presence of a third, more ambitious target at the 423.6 Fibonacci level near 0.8169, and I consider it achievable in the broader context if the market receives supportive drivers. I remain conservative for the current session, and I only expect the first target to be reached today under normal conditions. I am paying close attention to the support level at 0.7979, because I understand that a clear break below this level would invalidate the current bullish scenario. I accept that if such a breakdown occurs, all buying targets would be canceled, and I would immediately shift my focus toward newly formed selling targets. I admit that I find this bearish alternative scenario less likely at the moment, given the current bullish candle structure and the absence of strong selling pressure. I remind myself that the market is always capable of surprises, and I therefore avoid overconfidence despite my bullish bias. I focus on disciplined risk management, and I ensure that my strategy remains flexible enough to adapt if price action changes unexpectedly. I conclude that as long as price holds above key support, I prefer to respect the bullish setup and trade in line with the prevailing intraday momentum.

I am greeting you as a colleague and acknowledging your poetic observation, because this calm and almost stagnant market environment truly creates a sense of tension and anticipation. I feel the same quiet pressure when I look at the charts, and I admit that this silence can be more exhausting than strong volatility. I have also glanced at the daily wave chart, and I clearly see that USD/CHF is indeed behaving like a tired reindeer, reluctantly completing the final meters of its northern journey. I interpret this behavior as the market working through the remnants of its previous upward impulse rather than initiating something entirely new. I am focusing first on the 100-period moving average, and I see that it is moving almost perfectly parallel to the horizontal axis, which for me is a classic sign of a flat and undecided weekly sentiment. I consider this flatness as confirmation that neither bulls nor bears currently have a decisive long-term advantage. I then analyze the 18-period moving average, and I notice that it has already slipped below the key moving average, which I read as an intraday sell-off signal. I also note, however, that this same 18-period moving average has recently turned north at its terminal point, and I interpret its roughly 40-degree upward angle as a sign of short-term recovery pressure. I am paying close attention to this contradiction, because it perfectly reflects the current mixed and sideways market structure. I examine the Ichimoku Cloud, and I see that it is still painted in sell-off colors, which keeps the broader bearish bias technically valid. I also observe that the cloud itself is beginning to slope upward at about a 40-degree angle, and I take this as a warning that a reversal attempt may be forming. I combine all of these signals and conclude that the market is preparing not for a breakout, but for exploitation of range-bound conditions. I already know the boundaries of this range by heart, and I clearly define them between 0.8080 and 0.7920. I am now watching price action closely as it approaches the upper boundary of this corridor. I believe that trading opportunities will emerge precisely from reactions near these limits rather than from trend-following strategies. I remain cautious, patient, and disciplined, because I understand that in a sideways market, precision and timing matter far more than conviction.