FX.co ★ Jackroay | XAU/USD, GOLD

I see that gold is still trending upward, and I believe the unpredictable global situation will continue to support this trend for quite some time. I remind myself that gold never moves in a straight line, and I clearly see how momentum phases are followed by pauses and consolidations. I recall how yesterday gold surged sharply in the morning, broke through 4600, nearly reached 4700, and then hovered around 4675 for the rest of the day. I find it difficult to define what to expect next in such a scenario, because I can see both a potential breakout and a possible retreat back toward 4600. I notice that price has stalled near 4675, and I admit that this level leaves me uncertain about the correct tactical decision. I consider that a breakout above 4675 with an H1 close would technically justify entering longs, yet I remain cautious because the psychological barrier at 4700 is still ahead. I recognize that waiting for a clean breakout above 4700 could reduce risk, but I also know that waiting too long means missing part of the move. I observe that the moving averages suggest a sideways phase, and I acknowledge that candlesticks at this point are not providing me with reliable directional clues. I accept that waiting for a confirmed breakout is the most disciplined approach, yet I also admit that I took a calculated risk by opening a minimal long position. I set my first target at 4730 if price breaks above 4675, and I defined my loss at 4650 if price moves south. I remind myself that the current structure still favors longs locally, and I believe selling into strength without a structural break remains risky. I note that gold often makes its strongest move early in the week and then drifts into a range, and I find that pattern frustrating because it is difficult to trade efficiently on H1. I reflect that yesterday’s move of nearly 10,000 points followed by a narrow 1500-point range perfectly illustrates this behavior. I realize that trading within this channel is unattractive for me because my stop losses would exceed my potential profits.

I observe on the daily chart that gold has reached new historical highs around 4690, and I believe this rally is not finished yet. I recognize that the rising wedge structure still points to further upside, even if the market pauses or corrects briefly. I see that both the daily CCI and MACD still support the bullish movement, although I notice that the faster CCI is beginning to flatten. I interpret this flattening as a sign of a potential horizontal correction rather than a meaningful reversal. I identify the 4640 area as key support, and I note that the EMA20 is approaching this zone, reinforcing it as dynamic support. I expect that a pullback into this region could serve as a base for renewed growth toward 4700 and beyond. I acknowledge that if 4640 fails, the next strong support lies near 4585, and I accept that such a move would change my short-term bias. I focus on the four-hour chart, where I still see a nearly mature bullish pennant supporting continuation. I believe that even a correction to 4640 would preserve the bullish flag structure rather than invalidate it. I project that the measured move from this consolidation could target the 4770–4780 zone. I attribute much of this bullish persistence to geopolitical instability, and I admit that this fundamental backdrop discourages me from considering short positions. I recognize that selling into this trend feels like gambling, and I am not willing to risk my deposit on a countertrend trade. I prefer to look for long entries on corrections into the 4595–4625 zone, where risk-reward would be more favorable. I agree that 5000 is unlikely in the near term, but I believe it remains a realistic springtime target if momentum persists. I conclude that as long as the market structure remains intact, I will prioritize patience, disciplined entries, and respect for the trend rather than chasing uncertain breakouts or premature reversals.