FX.co ★ Jackroay | EUR/JPY

I am reflecting on the recent behavior of JPY pairs, especially EUR/JPY, and I am reminded how quickly opportunities can appear and vanish in such volatile instruments. I am acknowledging that I entered buys after the market opened and then exited them too early, even though the broader uptrend remained clearly intact. I am recognizing that my hesitation stemmed from the unpredictable nature of the yen, which has a habit of springing surprises when traders grow complacent. I am seeing that the bulls have now pushed price into the 184.00–184.20 barrier zone, which represents a technically important threshold for continuation. I am interpreting a sustained consolidation above this region as a gateway toward 184.75, 185.15, and 185.55, which are all meaningful intermediate resistance levels. I am noting that a successful consolidation above 185.55 could extend the rally toward 186.70 and 187.50, and I am fully aware that from there, 190.00 would no longer feel distant. I am deliberately refraining from selling EUR/JPY at current levels because I respect the strength of the prevailing trend. I am admitting that a pullback is always possible, but I am convinced that trading against momentum in yen pairs carries elevated risk. I am considering a retracement toward 183.55–183.40 as a reasonable scenario and I am already thinking of it as a potential zone to look for renewed buying interest. I am also preparing for a deeper corrective move toward 182.80–182.60, which I would welcome as an even better accumulation area. I am emphasizing that patience remains critical, especially when the market is trending strongly. I am reminding myself that emotional exits often undermine otherwise sound technical plans. I am concluding that, from a trend-following perspective, buying dips remains the more rational strategy at this stage. I am maintaining a flexible bias that adapts to price behavior rather than rigid predictions.

I am now reassessing the H4 and H1 structures, and I am acknowledging that the zigzag low at 182.60 from January 8 has not been broken by the recent pullback. I am interpreting yesterday’s low at 182.74 as confirmation that the decline was corrective rather than impulsive. I am therefore viewing the current rise as a new bullish wave that logically targets the previous high near 185.53. I am simultaneously aware that this region coincides with historical highs, which makes a clean breakout less certain. I am questioning the probability of a decisive move beyond 185.53 because resistance pressure often intensifies in such zones. I am still keeping a selling option in mind, but I am restricting my interest to the 184.50 and higher area where risk–reward becomes more balanced. I am noting that on the H1 chart the price previously broke below the 184.01 support and later returned to test it from below, which I interpret as a classic role-reversal setup. I am observing that the rebound from 182.85 was strong and that the average daily upward breakout was reached and slightly exceeded. I am also paying close attention to the baseline indicator, which remains in the sell zone and hints at a potential downside reaction. I am telling myself that a confident bearish rejection from the 184 region would justify short positions in line with the local trend. I am refusing to sell impulsively if price shows no reaction from resistance, because that would invalidate the short thesis. I am also noticing that the OsMA histogram has turned positive again and that the CCI has reversed upward, which strengthens the bullish case in the short term. I am planning to trail my stop-loss aggressively if price breaks through 185.44 and to move it to breakeven once the trade becomes comfortably profitable. I am concluding that EUR/JPY currently sits at a technical crossroads where disciplined execution and respect for both bullish momentum and overhead resistance will determine long-term profitability.