FX.co ★ FX-Perfact | USD/CAD

USD/CAD H4 Timeframe: Based on the USD/CAD chart on the H4 timeframe, the current price structure remains in a bearish correction phase after previously experiencing a fairly sharp decline. Price movements indicate that selling pressure temporarily dominated the market, particularly when the price failed to maintain above the medium- and long-term moving averages. The two moving averages clearly visible on the chart, the 100-day moving average (MA) (blue) and the 200-day moving average (MA) (red), serve as important references for interpreting the overall trend direction. In the previous phase, the price briefly rose and formed a swing high around 1.39, but this increase was not sustained. Strong rejection occurred in that area, followed by a breakdown below the 100-day and 200-day moving averages. The price crossing below these two moving averages signaled a shift in bias from neutral to bearish. Following the breakdown, the price fell quite aggressively until it reached a strong support area around 1.35, which was seen as a buyer reaction zone, with the formation of a long lower candle tail. This indicates significant buying interest at low levels. The rebound from the 1.35 support area is corrective and has not yet changed the overall trend structure. This is evident in the price's failure to break through the 100- and 200-day moving averages. Currently, the price is moving below the 200-day moving average, while the 100-day moving average remains below the 200-day moving average and is trending flat to slightly downward. This confirms that the intermediate trend remains under bearish pressure, despite short-term consolidation.

The 1.3650–1.3700 area serves as a key resistance zone. This level coincides with the horizontal resistance area and is close to the 100-day moving average. As long as the price remains below this zone, the opportunity for further weakness remains open. Several attempts by the price to rise to this area have always been met with selling pressure, as reflected in candles with small bodies and relatively clear upper tails. This indicates that sellers are still actively defending the resistance area. On the downside, the 1.3550–1.3600 area serves as the closest support. If this area is breached again with a valid H4 candlestick closing, further downside towards 1.3500 or even 1.3480 will be possible. This area has previously been a strong rebound point, so a breach this time would further confirm the bearish structure. However, as long as this support holds, the price has the potential to move sideways within a relatively narrow range. From a price action perspective, the current movement pattern resembles a bearish continuation consolidation, rather than a trend reversal. There is no consistent higher high and higher low structure to support a bullish scenario. Therefore, the primary bias remains toward selling on rallies, especially if the price approaches the dynamic resistance area of the 100-day moving average (MA) or the horizontal resistance at 1.37. In conclusion, the USDCAD H4 technical analysis indicates that the market remains dominated by sellers, with the consolidation phase serving as a temporary respite. As long as the price remains below the 200-day moving average (MA) and fails to break through key resistance, bearish pressure has the potential to continue. Buyers should wait for stronger confirmation in the form of a breakout and a candle closing above the 200-day moving average (MA) to indicate a more valid trend change.