FX.co ★ Jackroay | GBP/USD

I’m looking at GBP/USD from the weekly timeframe first, and I still see that nothing structurally important has changed around the 50% Fibonacci retracement near 1.3770. I keep returning to this level because I consider it a major ceiling that has already proven its strength, as I saw the price test it during the summer, fail to break through, and fall into a correction. I now see that the pair has once again approached this resistance and once again failed to secure a breakout, which reinforces my belief that sellers are defending this zone aggressively. I view the current daily pullback as a natural reaction to this higher-timeframe resistance, and I expect that if the daily trendline is tested again, it will eventually give way under pressure. I believe that once this trendline is broken decisively, I will be able to draw a broader Fibonacci retracement over the entire upward rally, which should give me clearer downside projections. I also notice that despite some short-term bullish attempts on lower timeframes, the broader structure still reflects hesitation and distribution rather than impulsive growth. I think the market is compressing below a critical barrier, and I interpret repeated failures at resistance as a sign of weakening bullish momentum. I recognize that true bullish confirmation would require a confident breakout with new highs above recent peaks, and I do not yet see that condition fulfilled. I also observe that the price remains inside a descending channel on the intraday structure, and I interpret rebounds from the upper boundary as technical selling opportunities rather than signs of strength. I believe that as long as the pair trades below key Fibonacci zones and struggles to reclaim broken structures, I must prioritize bearish scenarios.

I also analyze the intraday picture, especially on the M30 and H1 charts, where I previously saw a bounce from weekly support at 1.3434 and a breakout above the daily level at 1.3477, and I initially considered that development as a potential buying opportunity. I saw the price consolidate above former resistance, and I interpreted multiple retests as evidence that buyers were temporarily defending the level. I noticed the arrow indicator signaling upward movement, and I considered a buy toward 1.3553 with a stop below the reclaimed level, expecting a pullback from daily resistance there. However, I now see that the instrument is not producing sustained growth, and I acknowledge that the structure still lacks higher highs and higher lows on a broader scale. I observe that the price reached resistance near 1.3531 on H1, renewed local highs, and then quickly declined, which signals exhaustion rather than expansion. I also identify a bearish engulfing pattern on the H4 chart, and I interpret it as a strong warning that sellers are regaining control. I project initial downside targets at 1.3432 and then 1.3360, and I consider the 1.3366–1.3427 zone as a potential reaction area within the descending channel. I recognize that fundamentally the pound appears weaker compared to the euro, and I believe this relative weakness supports further downside pressure. I conclude that unless I see an unexpected surge of pound strength and a structural breakout above resistance, I will remain biased toward continued decline in GBP/USD.