FX.co ★ Jackroay | CL/Crude Oil

I continue to analyze the situation in WTI crude oil, and I see that the market reacted precisely from the 67.80 target, after which price rotated back toward the current contract’s ROS around 66.40. I interpret this reaction as a technically justified pause rather than a confirmed reversal, because I notice that the broader structure on the daily and H4 charts still favors buyers. I observe that bulls have already tested the upper boundary of the 67.39–67.81 resistance zone, and I understand that repeated pressure on this ceiling usually signals preparation for continuation higher. I believe that geopolitical tension surrounding potential U.S. action against Iran is adding speculative premium to crude, and I factor in that any escalation involving Iran and Israel could sharply disrupt supply expectations. I acknowledge that when the majority expects only upside, I become cautious, because I know that the most aggressive reversals happen when positioning is overcrowded. I project that if momentum persists, I could see price extending toward 68.97–70.29, and I even allow for a stretch toward 73.36 within the current daily wave. I also recognize that only a strong bearish daily close below 67.81 would weaken my bullish scenario in the short term.

I analyze the H1 chart and I see a broad ascending channel guiding price action, and I note that oil trading near 66.87–67.08 keeps the short-term structure intact as long as 62.00 holds as dynamic support. I observe on the H4 timeframe that the rising channel from the 55.00 low remains valid, and I interpret the rebound from 62.00 as confirmation that buyers still defend key zones. I understand that 67.30 acts as immediate resistance, and I admit that if bulls fail to secure acceptance above this level, I would prioritize short setups targeting 62.30 and potentially 60.00. I recognize that supply expansion narratives could pressure prices again, and I accept that failure at channel resistance could trigger a corrective decline toward 55.00. I remain flexible in my bias, and I tell myself that I must wait for confirmation signals before committing aggressively in either direction.