FX.co ★ Kenwood | EUR/USD

EUR/USD Monthly Chart Post Analysis The EUR/USD monthly chart shows a long-term bearish trend that began after the 2014 peak. Price experienced a sharp decline during that period, breaking below key support levels and establishing a strong downward structure. The 200-period moving average (red line) has consistently acted as dynamic resistance, confirming the broader bearish bias over several years. Between 2015 and 2020, the pair entered a wide consolidation phase. During this period, price fluctuated between major support and resistance zones without establishing a sustained directional breakout. The 50-period (blue) and 100-period (yellow) moving averages frequently crossed, reflecting the lack of strong momentum and the presence of ranging conditions. In 2021–2022, the market resumed a strong bearish move, pushing EUR/USD to new multi-year lows near parity. This decline was supported by clear lower highs and lower lows, as well as the widening gap between price and the 200-period moving average. The RSI also dropped into oversold territory during this phase, indicating strong bearish pressure. Recently, however, the chart shows signs of recovery. Price has rebounded from the lows and is now trading above the 50-period and 100-period moving averages. The RSI is holding above the 50 level, suggesting improving bullish momentum. This shift indicates that buyers are gradually regaining control in the medium term. Despite this recovery, the pair remains below the 200-period moving average, which continues to slope downward. This suggests that the long-term trend is still technically bearish. For a confirmed long-term reversal, price would need to break above the 200-period moving average and establish higher highs on the monthly timeframe. In conclusion, EUR/USD appears to be transitioning from a long-term downtrend into a medium-term recovery phase. While bullish momentum is building, key resistance levels remain ahead. Traders should monitor price action around the 200-period moving average and major resistance zones to determine whether this recovery develops into a sustained trend reversal or remains a corrective rally within a broader bearish structure.