FX.co ★ Jackroay | CL/Crude Oil

I am analyzing West Texas Intermediate in light of the recent geopolitical escalation following the missile strikes involving the US and Israel against Iran, and I see that the market initially reacted with a sharp spike before correcting back toward the 71.50–72.00 zone. I observe on the daily chart that price surged toward 76.00 and then pulled back, forming a red daily candlestick around 71.50, yet I still interpret this as a healthy correction rather than a reversal. I note that price has already broken above the 50-day SMA near 66.40 and is currently challenging the 200-day SMA around 72.15, and I believe that a sustained close above this long-term average would confirm a structural shift from bearish to bullish conditions. I recognize the completed Double Bottom formation with a neckline near 67.30, and I interpret the impulsive breakout above that level as a strong technical signal targeting the 78.50–80.00 liquidity zone. I see that the RSI is holding near 64, and I consider this supportive of further upside since it remains below overbought territory. I also observe expanding MACD histograms and rising ATR values, and I interpret this as institutional momentum entering the market under a geopolitical risk premium.

I am also evaluating the weekly chart, and I see that price is pressing against the upper boundary of a descending channel that began after the rejection from 95.00, and I interpret the recent breakout attempt as an early-stage bullish reversal signal. I believe that a decisive break above the channel resistance would open the way toward the psychological 80.00 mark. I am watching the 4-hour structure closely, and I see price holding above former resistance at 67.30, which I now treat as structural support. I notice that price is trading firmly above the Ichimoku Cloud, and I consider this confirmation of bullish control despite short-term overextension from the Tenkan-sen. I acknowledge that volatility remains elevated due to uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz, and I accept that any sudden de-escalation could trigger a rapid pullback toward 65.00. I am planning on the H1 timeframe to consider long positions near 71.50 with a protective stop below 70.40, and I intend to scale out of the position in three 109-point intervals to systematically lock in profits while allowing room for continuation toward 75.00 and potentially 78.00.