FX.co ★ FX-Perfact | USD/CAD

USD/CAD H4 Timeframe: Based on the USD/CAD H4 timeframe chart, the pair previously experienced strong bearish pressure after peaking above 1.3900. The decline in the second half of January was impulsive, marked by a series of long bearish candlesticks that penetrated several key support levels without significant correction. The price even touched the 1.3480 area, forming a significant low before a technical rebound occurred. Observing the 100-day moving average (blue line) and 200-day moving average (red line), both showed a fairly clear bearish structure during the decline. The 100-day moving average (MA) was below the 200-day moving average (MA), and both had a downward slope, reflecting the dominance of a medium-term downtrend. However, mid-February saw a change in dynamics. The price gradually rose and approached the 100-day moving average (MA), before successfully breaking through it. Currently, the price is hovering around the 200-day moving average (MA), which serves as strong dynamic resistance in the 1.3670–1.3730 range. The recent price structure indicates a relatively tight consolidation phase. After rebounding from the 1.3480 area and forming a higher low around 1.3550, the price continued to move upwards gradually, but upward momentum began to stall near the 200-day moving average (MA). The 1.3730 area became a key horizontal resistance area, having previously acted as support before a major breakdown. The price's inability to decisively break through this area suggests that sellers still maintain control at the key level.

Conversely, the relatively consistent formation of higher lows since the January low indicates that selling pressure is weakening. The 100-day moving average (MA) has begun to flatten, even trending upwards, signaling that the previous bearish momentum is no longer as strong as it was at the beginning of the decline. However, as long as the 100-day moving average remains below the 200-day moving average (MA) and a bullish crossover has not occurred, the medium-term trend has not fully reversed. Overall, USD/CAD on the H4 timeframe is showing signs of stabilization after intense bearish pressure. Recovery momentum is starting to form, but confirmation of a trend reversal still requires a breakout of key resistance and a clearer change in the moving average structure. For the time being, the movement bias tends to be neutral with a limited bullish tendency as long as the price is able to stay above the area of the latest higher low. Technically, USD/CAD is currently in a transition phase between bearish continuation or bullish reversal. If the price can break and maintain above 1.3730 with a strong closing candle, the opportunity for continued gains towards 1.3850 or even 1.3920 will increase. This breakout also has the potential to trigger a more pronounced change in trend structure, especially if followed by a golden cross between the 100- and 200-day moving averages Conversely, if the price fails to break through the 200-day moving average again and falls below 1.3620, a prolonged consolidation scenario or even a correction back to the 1.3520 area is quite possible. This area serves as important support as it previously served as a significant rebound point.