FX.co ★ HiDe_N_SeEk | XAU/USD, GOLD

As talks between the United States and Iran faltered, gold fell back towards the $4600 mark. As the gold/silver ratio rose above the 62.50 level, silver fell toward the $73.00 mark. As traders concentrate on the robust increase in the oil markets, gold is losing strength. Negotiations between the United States and Iran have stopped, and oil traders don't think the Strait of Hormuz will reopen anytime soon. As the demand for riskier assets declines, rising oil prices are negative for gold. For months, gold—a conventional safe-haven asset—has been traded as a riskier commodity after speculative investors were drawn in by the robust rally. It appears that some central banks have begun to sell gold in order to shield their economy from the shock of rising oil prices. In order to stabilize local currencies during these periods, central banks may also sell gold. The depreciation of local currencies may push central banks to sell more gold, which might put a lot of pressure on the gold markets. In anticipation of tomorrow's Fed decision, Treasury rates continue to rise. The yield on 10-year Treasuries settled over 4.35%, while the yield on 2-year Treasuries increased to 3.85%. Growing yields are negative for interest-free gold. Gold and other precious metals were under more pressure as the US dollar strengthened against a wide range of foreign currencies. The $4530–$4550 range is the closest support level for gold. Gold will go toward the next support level at $4350–$4370 if it falls below the $4530 mark. For gold to have a chance to acquire sustained upside momentum in the near future, it must settle back above the resistance of $4660–$4680.

Gold During Thursday's early European session, gold (XAU/USD) recovers even more from the monthly low it hit the day before and moves back into the $4,600 mark. After reaching a new high since April 13, the US dollar (USD) starts a bullish consolidation phase and proves to be a significant driver supporting the commodity. However, the USD bulls are favored by the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) hawkish stance and the impasse between the US and Iran, which should limit any significant gain for the unyielding yellow metal. The US central bank maintained its key policy rate at 3.50%–3.75%, as was widely anticipated. Notably, three lawmakers voted against the policy statement's conciliatory tone, resulting in the greatest number of dissents since 1992. Jerome Powell, the departing Fed chair, made it clear in the press conference following the meeting that the topic of discussion was tone neutrality rather than the necessity of raising interest rates. However, traders are now pricing in more than a 10% likelihood of a rate increase by year's end and have drastically cut their bets on any additional easing by the Fed in 2026. The decision supports USD bulls at a time when the war-related spike in oil costs has been fueling inflationary concerns amid stalled US-Iran peace negotiations. In the most recent event pertaining to the Middle East crisis, US President Donald Trump reaffirmed that there will be no peace agreement with the Islamic Republic unless it agrees to give up the nuclear program and rejected Iran's fresh approach to end the two-month dispute. Trump further stated that the ongoing difficulties of energy supply across the Strait of Hormuz are being exacerbated by the naval blockade of Iranian ports. The overnight dip below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the March-April uptrend supports the XAU/USD being bearish in light of the current inability to find acceptance above the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart. Furthermore, momentum indicators are still precarious, with the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line being in negative territory and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovering around 38. This implies that while the price of gold is capped below these overhead levels, recovery attempts may be difficult. Prior to the deeper Fibonacci floors at $4,401.36 and $4,268.64, which represent a wider corrective cushion in the event that selling pressure continues, immediate support is observed around the 50.0% retracement region around $4,494.59.