FX.co ★ XEvils-Ash | XAG/USD, SILVER

After trading as low as $55.70 earlier in the week, spot silver ended the session at $59.19, up $1.33 or 2.3%. The intraday range of $55.70 to $59.58 illustrates the volatility of this market. After substantially falling from the highs recorded earlier in 2026, silver lost ground for the fourth week in a row and is currently in a long-term retracement zone. Silver surged right away as the dollar declined to about 101.36 on the U.S. Dollar Index. After the PCE report met rather than exceeded expectations, the likelihood of a September rate hike decreased. After weeks of selling, that was sufficient to cause short-covering, although the purchases appeared to be position adjustments rather than fresh funding. Friday saw a little increase in spot silver prices, which held the multi-month low at $55.60 for two sessions. The daily swing chart indicates that the primary trend is downward. The swing bottom at $45.55 is the next likely target price, and a trade through the low will confirm the downward trend. The primary trend will shift upward after a transaction at $71.56. At $46.48 to $60.83, traders are currently searching for support within a long-term retracement zone. The long-term 50% mark at $60.83 is crucial for the bulls to surpass. The 50% level at $63.58 represents short-term resistance. If this threshold is exceeded, there will be more buying pressure. Look for the surge to potentially continue into the 200-day moving average at $69.41 if this generates sufficient upward momentum. Silver responds to the dollar more quickly than gold, as demonstrated once more on Friday. After rising earlier in the week due to the inflation statistics, the dollar index fell for a second session. All it took for buyers to reenter a market that had been one-way for the majority of June was that slight decline. Silver reached $55.70 earlier in the week because of the higher dollar. The metal's trend was reversed on Friday when the earlier dollar movement changed direction. The dollar is currently the short-term driver, and the link is mechanical. Friday's gains are immediately reversed if the dollar starts to rise again on Monday. Last week, Spot Silver closed at $59.19, down $5.69, or 8.77%. The market is down $0.61, or 1.02%, at $58.58 early on Monday. In the same week, three significant support levels broke. In five sessions, the swing bottom, the midway point of the all-time high, and the 52-week moving average all fell. It wasn't a slow decline in sales. Warsh's hawkish first meeting and the subsequent rate repricing were the driving forces behind the liquidation. During a holiday week, two events fall on the same day. In his first public speech as Fed Chair, Warsh will address the ECB Forum on Wednesday. Instead of the customary Friday, the June payrolls report arrives on Thursday morning, and the desks are already empty in preparation for the long weekend. Last week, Spot Silver removed the swing bottom at $61.01, the 52-week moving average at $62.94, and 50% of the all-time high at $60.83, confirming its downward trend. With a long-term Fibonacci objective at $46.48 and the October 2025 main low at $45.55 as the next significant downward targets, the move to $55.60 opens the door to a further price decline. The first indication of a recovery will be overcoming $60.83, or 50% of the all-time high, but, in order to draw in some serious buyers, buyers will need to recapture the 52-week moving average and re-establish a supportive foundation. Silver must simultaneously sell from both sides of that trade. Every customer outside of the US must pay extra for the metal due to the strengthening of the dollar. In comparison to a metal that pays nothing, rising yields boost the return on bonds and cash. Another round of hawkish confirmation from the data propels the selling toward the downside goals the technicals identified in a market that already violated every significant support level last week. The holiday book exacerbates the situation. Thursday afternoon's thin liquidity causes the selling to pick up speed more quickly than it would during a typical session. The most risky combination for anyone keeping a long position into the weekend is a hot print landing in a weak market with a confirmed downturn.