FX.co ★ KHALISA | EUR/USD

Good afternoon. Allow me to join in the discussion and share my views on the EUR/USD currency pair. In this analysis, I'm using a fairly simple approach: using the Bollinger Bands Moving Average to read trend direction and the MACD as a momentum indicator and confirmation. Referring to the daily timeframe, the Bollinger Bands are still pointing downward, indicating that the major trend is still dominated by bearish pressure. Last week's gains appear limited, as the price only reached the middle Bollinger Band area, which acts as dynamic resistance, before being rejected from there. This indicates that selling pressure remains quite strong. Furthermore, the price had previously broken through the support level around 1.1408, forming a lower low structure. Technically, this pattern is generally followed by a correction phase before the price resumes its downtrend. Therefore, as long as the price hasn't broken through the middle band area, the potential for a decline remains high. To further validate the signal, I will wait for the MACD to move do

Looking at the H4 timeframe, current price movement remains confined to the 1.1427 to 1.1437 range, indicating the market is in a consolidation phase with a relatively narrow range. However, selling pressure is starting to become more dominant as the area remains below key resistance levels around 1.1450 to 1.1480. As long as the price fails to break through this resistance, the potential for a continuation of the bearish trend remains strong. Stronger confirmation will emerge if the price falls again and breaks through 1.1408 or even moves below the lower Bollinger Band. Momentum-wise, the MACD is also starting to show weakening buying pressure, with its histogram shrinking, indicating that buyer power is waning and sellers have the potential to regain control of the market. Based on the combined analysis on both timeframes, I maintain a bearish bias on EUR/USD in the short term. The daily timeframe indicates a downward trend, while the H4 timeframe is starting to signal renewed selling pressure after the price failed to break through resistance. Therefore, a trading plan that I consider quite relevant is to wait for a sell opportunity around the 1.1405 area with a stop-loss placed above the resistance level, around 1.1480, to anticipate an upward breakout. Meanwhile, the first profit target can be directed to the H4 support area around 1.1360, with the next target at the next support level around 1.1330 if selling pressure persists. Of course, all of these scenarios still require confirmation from price movements and sound risk management to ensure more informed trading decisions. That concludes my analysis; I hope it serves as additional reference and is useful for all of us. Thank you.