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AUD/CAD H4 Timeframe

Based on the AUD/CAD chart on the H4 timeframe, price action is still in a consolidation phase after previously experiencing fairly strong bearish pressure. Analysis using the 100-period Moving Average (MA), 200-period MA, and horizontal support and resistance lines shows that this pair is currently in a decision area. Although there was a bounce from the support area, so far price has not been able to form a truly strong bullish structure. This indicates that market participants are still waiting for a new catalyst to determine the next direction. From a trend perspective, the 100 MA (blue line) is still below the 200 MA (red line). This configuration shows that the medium-term trend bias is still dominated by bearish pressure. In addition, the slope of the 100 MA is still pointing down even though it has started to flatten, indicating that the downside momentum is starting to fade but has not fully reversed into an uptrend. On the other hand, the 200 MA is moving more sideways, suggesting that the long-term trend is entering a transition phase after previously weakening quite significantly. The current price is slightly below the 100 MA and still below the 200 MA. This condition shows that both moving averages are still acting as dynamic resistance, limiting the upside potential. As long as price has not been able to break and hold above both indicators, the probability of renewed selling pressure remains relatively higher than the probability of a sustainable bullish trend forming. However, the distance between price and the 100 MA is not too wide, so the possibility of a retest of the dynamic resistance area remains open if buying momentum picks up again. From the horizontal support and resistance side, the 0.9811 level is the nearest support currently being tested by price. This area is quite important because it has repeatedly acted as a balance point between buying and selling pressure. If price is able to hold above this level, the probability of a rebound toward the nearest resistance is still quite high. Conversely, if this level is convincingly broken, bearish pressure is expected to dominate again and open the way for a decline toward the next support around 0.9779. The 0.9779 support is a fairly strong area because it previously acted as a turning point after fairly aggressive selling pressure. Buyer reaction in that area shows that there is still buying interest capable of preventing a deeper decline. If this support is retested and holds, the potential for a double bottom pattern or an accumulation phase remains open. However, if that level is broken, the next downside target points to the 0.9743 area, which is a major support as well as the lowest point in the price structure over the last few months. A break below that level would strengthen the signal that the medium-term bearish trend is resuming. On the resistance side, the 0.9849 area is the first barrier that buyers must overcome. This level previously acted several times as support before eventually turning into resistance after a downside break. This change of role from support to resistance shows that this area has fairly high technical significance. If price can consistently close above 0.9849, the probability of a move up toward the next resistance around 0.9885 will increase. The next resistance is at 0.9916, which is an important area because it previously became the starting point of fairly strong selling pressure. A break above this level would signal that buyers are starting to take control of the market and confirm a shift in the price structure to a more bullish one. After that, the next upside target points to the major resistance around 0.9948, which has been the upper boundary of price action over the last few months. From the candlestick characteristics, volatility appears to be decreasing compared to the previous decline phase. The appearance of several candles with relatively small bodies and fairly long upper and lower wicks indicates a balance between buyer and seller strength. This condition illustrates that the market is in a consolidation phase before determining its next direction. Such a phase is usually followed by a stronger move after a breakout from the support or resistance area being tested. Looking at the relationship between price and the two moving averages, the recovery potential still requires additional confirmation. Price needs to break above the 100 MA first before testing the 200 MA. A break above both moving averages would increase the probability of a new uptrend forming. Conversely, failure to break the 100 MA would instead reinforce its function as dynamic resistance and increase the likelihood of sellers regaining dominance. Overall, the technical outlook for AUD/CAD on the H4 timeframe remains biased bearish to neutral, with selling pressure starting to weaken but not yet showing a strong trend reversal signal. The price structure is still below the 100 MA and 200 MA, so the medium-term trend still favors sellers. The 0.9811 area is the key support that must hold to maintain recovery potential. As long as this level holds, price still has the potential to test resistance at 0.9849 up to 0.9885. However, if that support is broken, the probability of a decline toward 0.9779 and even 0.9743 will increase. Therefore, market participants should wait for a valid breakout confirmation from the current consolidation area before making trading decisions, in order to increase the chance of obtaining more accurate signals while minimizing risks amid a market that still lacks clear direction.