FX.co ★ berta.hill | EUR/USD

Simple Analysis of EUR/USD Movement The movement of the EUR/USD pair currently still shows that bearish pressure has not completely disappeared. After several attempts to move higher, price again failed to break through the strong resistance area at 1.14750. This area once again proves its role as an important barrier capable of holding back price advances. Every time price approaches that level, selling pressure re-emerges, pushing EUR/USD lower. Looking at the movement on the minor time frame, bearish pressure is starting to look increasingly consistent. A lower high pattern has formed again, indicating that every rally is only being used by market participants to sell. This condition signals that bearish dominance is still quite strong in the short term, even though it has not yet managed to create a very sharp downtrend. Meanwhile, on the daily time frame, price movement still tends to be in a sideways phase. This is evident from the absence of a truly strong breakout either to the upside or downside. Price is still moving within a relatively limited range, indicating a temporary balance between buying and selling pressure. However, even though the market is sideways, selling pressure still appears slightly more dominant than buying pressure. At the moment, price is around the pivot area at 1.14380. This position is one of the key levels that will determine the next direction of movement. As long as price remains below the 1.14750 resistance area and is not yet able to hold back above the pivot with strong momentum, the probability of further weakness is greater than the probability of strengthening. That pivot area is also used by market participants as a reference to see whether bearish pressure still has enough strength to continue the decline. If price moves down again from the pivot area accompanied by increasing selling pressure on the smaller time frames, then the probability of a drop towards the support area will become more likely.

. The main support currently in focus is at 1.13800. This level is a fairly important decision area because it has the potential to be where buying reactions emerge. If bearish pressure is able to push price down to that level, market participants will watch whether the support can still hold or instead be broken. If support is broken with strong volume, the probability of a continued decline will increase. Conversely, if support is able to withstand selling pressure, a short-term bounce or rebound is likely to occur. For next week’s movement, the outlook still tends to favor a bearish scenario. This is supported by several technical factors, such as the failure of price to break the 1.14750 resistance, the reappearance of selling pressure on the minor time frames, and the fact that price is still moving below the main resistance area. As long as these conditions do not change, sellers still have the opportunity to maintain their dominance. Even so, because the daily trend is still in a sideways phase, market participants still need to be cautious about the possibility of volatile price action. In such conditions, price can move up and down within a certain range before finally choosing a clearer direction. Therefore, confirmation of price movement remains important before making trading decisions. Overall, the technical picture of EUR/USD still shows that bearish pressure is again trying to extend its dominance after repeatedly managing to defend the 1.14750 resistance area. As long as price is unable to break that resistance, weakness remains the more dominant scenario. The price position around the 1.14380 pivot is also an important point that can determine the next direction of movement. Taking the current technical conditions into account, EUR/USD movement next week is expected to remain dominated by bearish pressure. The nearest downside target is in the 1.13800 support area, which is the key level for the next trend direction. If that support is able to hold, the chance of an upward correction remains open. However, if support is broken, bearish dominance is expected to strengthen further and open the way for a deeper decline in the following trading sessions.