FX.co ★ Sud | #Ethereum chart analysis

Ethereum at the Crossroads: Technical Compression, Elliott Wave Correction, and Macro Convergence Target $2,066 Breakout Ethereum (ETH/USD) completed a daily session on the D1 timeframe with a close at $1,915.43, navigating a tight intraday channel between an open of $1,917.74, a high of $1,919.46, and a low of $1,912.36. This muted price action reflects a critical inflection point in the structural evolution of the asset, where a three-month multi-phase transition has shifted ETH from a aggressive five-wave bearish impulse into a complex corrective recovery now testing major macro supply zones. The primary phase from mid-May to July 1 unfolded as a textbook five-wave Elliott Wave decline, driving ETH from the $2,354.40 peak down to an ultimate capitulation floor near $1,587.20. This downward cascade was anchored by high-volume breakdown candles that sliced cleanly through key historical pivot levels at $2,066.70 and $1,970.80, forcing price action against the lower envelope of the yellow Bollinger Band boundaries. An interim mid-June base-building attempt between $1,683.10 and $1,779.00 failed to reclaim the short-to-medium-term moving averages (represented by the red and blue dynamic overlays), confirming persistent institutional sell pressure until exhaustion materialized at $1,587.20. The secondary phase from July 1 through July 25 marked the primary recovery phase (Wave A), characterized by a sequence of higher structural lows ($1,587.20, $1,683.10, $1,779.00, and $1,874.90) and higher structural highs ($1,683.10, $1,874.90, and $1,970.80). During this advance, Ethereum reclaimed its dynamic short-to-medium moving averages, forcing them to slope upward into dynamic support. The Bollinger Bands expanded to accommodate the rally as price rode the upper band directly into the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level ($1,970.80) of the entire $2,354.40–$1,587.20 drop. Rejection wicks at $1,970.80 on July 25 signaled temporary supply absorption and profit-taking, initiating the third phase of consolidation. Between July 26 and August 6, Ethereum entered a retest and compression phase (Wave B), establishing a narrow trading range between $1,874.90 and $1,970.80. The moving average ribbon has flattened and converged around the $1,900.00 psychological baseline, while the narrowing Bollinger Bands indicate volatility contraction prior to an imminent directional expansion. Technical Trend Architecture & Strategic Execution Map: Immediate Overhead Resistance Confluence: $1,919.46 (session high) and $1,970.80 (July peak, 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, upper Bollinger Band alignment). Macro Upside Extension Targets: $2,066.70 (50% Fibonacci retracement, May breakdown level) and $2,162.60 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement). Immediate Dynamic Support Layer: $1,912.36 (session low) and $1,900.00 (converging moving average ribbon baseline). Critical Structural Support Floor: $1,874.90 (higher-low structural pivot). Deeper downside buffers align at $1,779.00, $1,683.10, and the macro base at $1,587.20. Major bearish extension target sits at $1,491.30. Macro & Elliott Wave Scenario Matrix: Bullish Wave C Continuation Scenario: A daily candle close above $1,970.80 confirms Wave C impulse development, unleashing momentum toward $2,066.70 and $2,162.60. Supported by a weakening US Dollar and potential institutional spot ETF inflow triggers, a weekly close above $2,066.70 would confirm a macro trend reversal from the May decline. Bearish Breakdown Scenario: A daily close beneath $1,874.90 invalidates the short-term higher-low structure, signaling a broader range contraction that exposes $1,779.00 and $1,683.10. A failure to hold the $1,587.20 macro low would re-engage the primary downtrend toward $1,491.30.