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EURUSD Daily Chart – Smart Money & Price Action Analysis The EURUSD Daily chart is currently trading around 1.15579, showing a meaningful recovery from the 1.13308 demand/support region after the earlier bearish phase. The overall structure on the visible chart suggests that price has transitioned from a prolonged corrective decline into a developing bullish recovery, although the market is now approaching an important decision area. From the left side of the chart, EURUSD initially advanced toward the 1.17560–1.18499 region before forming a distribution-like top and beginning a series of lower highs and lower lows. That bearish sequence continued through May and June, eventually pushing price toward the 1.13308 major support level. The reaction from this area is technically important because buyers defended the lower boundary and produced a visible change in short-term market structure. I would therefore treat 1.13308 as the primary downside liquidity and demand reference, while 1.15579 is the immediate equilibrium area. The current candles are recovering toward previous swing levels, indicating that bullish order flow has improved. However, the market has not yet completely eliminated the higher-timeframe supply pressure visible above. The Daily timeframe makes the 1.16270 area particularly important because it sits close to previous price interaction and can act as an intermediate resistance. A sustained Daily close above this region would improve the probability of continuation toward 1.17560 and eventually 1.18499. Conversely, rejection around 1.16270 could produce another retracement toward 1.14980 and 1.14000 before buyers attempt another move higher. The market structure provides one of the clearest signals on this chart. Earlier price action established a bearish sequence as EURUSD moved down from the upper 1.17–1.18 region toward 1.13308. During that decline, sellers repeatedly controlled rallies and created lower structural highs. The important development came after price reached the 1.13308 region, where the market stopped making aggressive new lows and started producing higher reaction points. The subsequent movement toward 1.14980–1.15579 suggests a developing bullish structural recovery. I would describe this as a potential MSS (Market Structure Shift) rather than assuming that a complete long-term reversal has already occurred. For a stronger bullish confirmation, price needs to break and close above the relevant previous swing high around 1.16270. Such a move would represent a more convincing BoS (Break of Structure) and would demonstrate that buyers are capable of overcoming the most recent bearish supply. Until that happens, the market remains in a transition phase between recovery and confirmed bullish continuation. The Daily candles are nevertheless showing improving demand because price has moved significantly away from 1.13308. If the market prints another higher high above 1.16270 followed by a controlled higher low, the bullish structure would become considerably stronger. The BSL (Buy-Side Liquidity) is concentrated above previous swing highs, particularly around the 1.16270, 1.17560, and 1.18499 areas. These levels represent zones where breakout traders may place buy orders and where short sellers may position protective stops. Because liquidity tends to accumulate around obvious highs, EURUSD could eventually move upward to collect this buy-side liquidity before deciding on its next major direction. The nearest meaningful BSL target is around 1.16270, while the larger liquidity pool is located around 1.17560–1.18499. If price breaks 1.16270 with strong Daily momentum, I would monitor whether the move is supported by expanding volume and strong candle bodies rather than a simple wick above resistance. A liquidity sweep above 1.16270 followed by an immediate bearish rejection would tell a different story and could indicate that smart money has used the breakout to distribute positions. On the other hand, acceptance above the level would convert that previous resistance into potential support. The SSL (Sell-Side Liquidity) is more clearly associated with the lows around 1.13308, along with the intermediate swing lows formed during June and July. A downside move toward those lows could therefore represent a liquidity hunt rather than an automatic bearish continuation. The Order Block concept is also important because the chart shows a major reaction emerging from the lower price region. The 1.13308 area can be treated as a higher-timeframe bullish order-block/demand reference because price previously reached this region and then generated a substantial recovery. The significance of an order block increases when it coincides with liquidity, displacement and a subsequent market-structure shift. In this case, the reaction from the lower region provides evidence that buyers were willing to absorb selling pressure. However, I would avoid treating the entire area as an exact entry point because Daily order blocks can be relatively broad. A more refined bullish zone would need to be identified using the final bearish candle or consolidation immediately before the strong bullish displacement. If EURUSD retraces toward 1.14000–1.14500, I would watch the reaction carefully for rejection, bullish engulfing behavior or lower-timeframe MSS. The upper side also contains potential bearish order-block/supply characteristics around 1.16270–1.17560, where previous selling pressure became visible. A return into that region could therefore create a battle between fresh demand and previously established supply. The FVG (Fair Value Gap) perspective adds another layer to the analysis. On a Daily chart, FVGs should not be identified simply because three candles look visually separated; the imbalance should be associated with meaningful displacement and inefficient price delivery. The strong bearish leg during the May–June decline likely created areas of inefficient downward movement that can later act as resistance when price retraces. Similarly, the bullish recovery from the 1.13308 region may have produced smaller bullish inefficiencies on the way upward. If EURUSD continues higher, previously created bearish inefficiencies around the 1.15800–1.16300 region deserve attention because price may react there. A bullish FVG that remains unfilled beneath current price could become a continuation zone if buyers return after a retracement. I would therefore combine FVG analysis with market structure instead of using an imbalance in isolation. A FVG + Order Block confluence would be considerably stronger if price enters the zone after taking liquidity and then produces a clear MSS. Such a setup would provide better confirmation than simply placing an order at the midpoint of an imbalance.

The Trendline Liquidity (TLL) structure is also visible through the sequence of swing points. During the earlier bearish phase, descending swing highs created a trendline where multiple reactions could have encouraged traders to place stops above the line. Once price broke that bearish trendline, some of that liquidity was potentially consumed, helping the recovery toward 1.15579. The current bullish recovery can now be monitored through its higher lows, with the trendline acting as dynamic support if those lows remain intact. A clean break beneath the rising structure would weaken the bullish recovery and increase the probability of a deeper retracement. However, a trendline itself should never be considered stronger than horizontal liquidity and structural levels. The most important TLL confirmation would occur if price sweeps a recent low, reclaims the trendline and then breaks a previous swing high. That combination would create a stronger liquidity-based setup. If EURUSD instead accelerates above the current high without returning to test the trendline, momentum traders may attempt continuation entries, but the risk of entering close to resistance would increase. The Gap and price-imbalance perspective should also be incorporated into the Daily structure. EURUSD has moved through several phases where aggressive directional candles created inefficient price delivery. Such gaps or imbalance areas can become future reaction points when the market returns to them. The important point is that a gap should not automatically be interpreted as bullish or bearish; its location within the overall structure determines its significance. A bullish imbalance below current price could provide support during a controlled retracement, while a bearish imbalance above current price could act as resistance. The current price around 1.15579 is already approaching the 1.16270 structural area, so I would not chase a long position merely because momentum has improved. Instead, I would wait for either a confirmed breakout and retest or a retracement into a high-quality FVG/Order Block combination. If price reaches an imbalance and rejects it with strong displacement, that reaction can reveal whether the zone is still being defended. Volume expansion during such a reaction would make the signal more meaningful. The supply and demand zones provide the broader framework for the trade idea. The strongest visible demand reference remains near 1.13308, where the market established a significant floor and later recovered. Above current price, the area around 1.16270 is the first major supply/resistance test, followed by the broader 1.17560–1.18499 zone. The upper 1.18499 level is particularly important because it represents a major visible resistance boundary on the chart. If EURUSD reaches that region after a sustained rally, sellers could become active again and a distribution pattern may develop. In contrast, a Daily close above 1.18499 would represent a major bullish expansion and potentially invalidate the visible bearish supply structure. On the downside, a break below 1.13308 would be technically significant because it would remove the strongest visible demand reference and expose lower prices. Therefore, I would consider the market bullish above confirmed structural resistance, neutral-to-bullish while holding above the recovery structure, and increasingly bearish if 1.13308 is decisively broken. The RSI(14) is currently around 62.50, which supports the improving bullish momentum visible on the price chart. RSI has recovered from the lower levels seen during the previous bearish phase and is now positioned above the neutral 50 area. This indicates that momentum currently favors buyers, but the indicator has not yet reached the traditional 70 overbought region. That distinction is important because RSI around 62.50 does not automatically mean EURUSD is overbought. Instead, it suggests that buyers have gained control of momentum without yet reaching an extreme condition. If price moves toward 1.16270 while RSI rises toward 65–70, I would monitor for bearish divergence or weakening momentum. If price creates a higher high while RSI fails to confirm it, the possibility of a liquidity sweep and corrective move would increase. Conversely, RSI remaining above 50 during a retracement would demonstrate that bullish momentum is being maintained. A fall below 50, particularly alongside a break of the recent higher-low structure, would weaken the bullish thesis and make a move toward 1.14500 and eventually 1.13308 more probable. The volume structure should be used as confirmation rather than as a standalone entry signal. The recent bullish recovery has been accompanied by periods of increased participation, suggesting that the move away from the June low was not simply a completely inactive drift. Nevertheless, the current price is approaching a significant resistance area, so volume behavior around 1.16270 will be crucial. A strong bullish candle breaking 1.16270 with noticeably higher participation would support a genuine BoS rather than a false breakout. If volume suddenly expands above the level but price closes back underneath it, that would be more consistent with a BSL sweep and potential bearish reversal. Similarly, a high-volume bearish candle from resistance could confirm seller absorption. On the downside, a high-volume rejection around 1.14000–1.14500 could provide evidence of demand. Therefore, I would combine volume with candle displacement, liquidity behavior and structural confirmation instead of treating a single volume spike as sufficient evidence. From a Fibonacci retracement perspective, the current recovery can be evaluated against the previous bearish swing. The region around 1.14980–1.15579 is already functioning as an important recovery area, while 1.16270 represents the next structural barrier. If price establishes acceptance above 1.16270, the next upside objective can be placed around 1.17560, followed by 1.18499. These levels should be viewed as potential liquidity targets rather than guaranteed destinations. On a retracement, the 0.382, 0.50 and 0.618 Fibonacci areas of the latest bullish impulse would be useful for locating possible pullback entries, particularly when they overlap with an FVG, Order Block, demand zone or TLL. The strongest confluence would occur where multiple independent tools point toward the same price area. I would therefore avoid using Fibonacci alone to predict a reversal. A Fibonacci level becomes much more valuable when price reaches it after taking liquidity and then produces an MSS or rejection candle. The bullish and bearish scenarios are now relatively clear. In the bullish scenario, EURUSD holds above the recent recovery structure, breaks 1.16270 with strong Daily displacement, and converts that resistance into support during a retest. Such behavior would establish a stronger bullish BoS and open the path toward 1.17560, with 1.18499 as the larger upside liquidity target. A bullish continuation would be even stronger if RSI remains above 50 and volume expands during the breakout. In the bearish scenario, price approaches 1.16270, sweeps BSL, fails to close above resistance and then produces a bearish MSS. That could send the pair back toward 1.14980, followed by 1.14000–1.13308. A decisive break below 1.13308 would significantly change the Daily structure and indicate that the previous bullish recovery was only corrective. For a high-probability setup, I would therefore wait for confirmation instead of predicting the direction purely from the current candle. Overall, my EURUSD Daily bias is cautiously bullish but confirmation-dependent, with the current market price near 1.15579 positioned between major support and resistance. The recovery from 1.13308 has improved the structure, RSI around 62.50 confirms positive momentum, and the recent price action suggests that buyers have regained influence. However, 1.16270 remains the immediate structural checkpoint, and the larger 1.17560–1.18499 region represents significant overhead liquidity and supply. My preferred bullish pathway would be a controlled pullback into a valid FVG/Order Block or demand area, followed by an MSS and renewed displacement toward 1.16270. Alternatively, a clean breakout above 1.16270 followed by a successful retest would offer stronger continuation confirmation, with 1.17560 and 1.18499 as potential targets. On the bearish side, rejection from resistance combined with BSL sweep and bearish MSS would favor a retracement toward 1.14980, 1.14000, and ultimately 1.13308. The key lesson from this chart is that liquidity, structure, FVG, Order Blocks, TLL, RSI and volume should be interpreted together rather than independently. 1.16270 is the immediate decision level, 1.13308 is the major downside invalidation/support area, and 1.18499 is the major upside objective/resistance.