FX.co ★ Pi-Network | #Bitcoin chart analysis

Weekly Chart Analysis: The Bearish Grip Endures A classical analysis of the BTCUSD weekly chart reveals a market firmly under bearish control. The sequence of lower highs and lower lows remains unbroken, defining the primary trend as bearish. Price action is currently testing a critical resistance zone near the $64,750 level, which coincides with a descending trendline that has capped rallies since the 2025 peak and a prior structural break of structure (BOS) around $66,000 . This level represents a significant barrier; a sustained break above it would be the first sign of a potential trend shift. Conversely, failure here would reinforce the bearish structure. The nearest major support lies at the recent swing low around $61,500, with a deeper and more critical support zone located at $52,000-$55,000, identified as the "worst-case" downside target by analysts and a historical bear market floor . Potential Scenarios: Divergence vs. Continuation 1. Bullish Scenario (Low Probability): A strong weekly close above the key resistance at $66,000-$67,300 would invalidate the current bearish structure and signal a potential trend reversal . This move would likely be preceded by a bullish divergence on the RSI, where price makes lower lows but the indicator makes higher lows, a condition some analysts are currently observing . However, a divergence alone is not sufficient for a trade; it requires confirmation through a structural breakout. The first bullish target on such a move would be a retest of the psychological $80,000-$83,000 resistance zone . 2. Bearish Scenario (High Probability): If BTC fails to overcome the resistance at $64,750-$66,000, this would confirm another lower high and reinforce the bearish trend. A rejection here could accelerate selling pressure, with the immediate target being a break below the $61,500 support. A confirmed breakdown below this level would likely trigger a move toward the major support zone at $52,000-$53,000, a projection supported by the measured move of a potential head and shoulders pattern . In this scenario, the downtrend continuation is the path of least resistance until a clear bullish reversal pattern emerges. Trade Setup Summary A prudent approach for the week ahead is to wait for a definitive breakout or breakdown from the current consolidation. For a bearish setup, a daily or weekly close below the $61,500 level would offer a high-probability selling opportunity, with a stop-loss placed above the recent swing high at approximately $65,000. The initial profit target would be the $55,000 area. A bullish trade would only be considered after a confirmed weekly close above the $66,000-$67,300 resistance zone, invalidating the current bearish bias. This move would suggest a potential shift in market structure, allowing for a long position targeting the $80,000 level as a first major objective. Summary In conclusion, the weekly chart remains in a bearish trend, characterized by lower lows and a significant resistance zone at $64,750-$66,000. The 50-week moving average and Ichimoku Cloud, key indicators for trend health, are also acting as resistance, suggesting the path to a sustained bull market is not yet clear . Until a clear breakout above these key levels is observed, the market structure favors the downside, with a potential move toward the $52,000-$55,000 support area. The medium-term outlook is bearish, and patience is required to wait for a decisive, high-probability trade setup.