FX.co ★ Jackroay | AUD/USD

1. AUDUSD M15 — Overall Market Structure The AUDUSD M15 chart is showing a market that has experienced a strong bullish recovery from the lower liquidity area, but the latest price action suggests that the pair is now entering a critical resistance and consolidation phase. Price is currently around 0.70620, while the marked red level near 0.70629 is acting as an immediate decision zone. Looking at the complete structure, I can see that the market first pushed upward toward the 0.70700–0.70720 region, created a strong high, and then delivered a significant bearish reaction. After that decline, the market formed lower prices around 0.70475–0.70500 and subsequently started building a bullish recovery. The important point for me is that the market has already demonstrated both sides of liquidity: the upper region contains buy-side liquidity around the previous highs, while the lower region contains sell-side liquidity around the previous lows. Therefore, I would not treat the current 0.70620 area as a simple buy or sell level. Instead, I would wait for confirmation from market structure, liquidity, FVG reaction, and Order Block behavior before considering the next directional move. 2. Previous High And Sell-Side Liquidity The upper portion of the chart contains a major previous high around 0.70700–0.70720. This region is important because previous highs commonly attract liquidity before a reversal or continuation. On the chart, the “SELL SIDE LIQUIDITY (PREVIOUS HIGH)” label identifies the upper liquidity concept. Although the terminology may differ depending on the trading framework being used, the key observation is that price previously reached this area and rejected aggressively. The candles around the previous high show strong buying followed by a sharp bearish displacement. For me, that rejection is important because it demonstrates that sellers were willing to enter heavily near the upper resistance. If AUDUSD returns toward 0.70670–0.70700, I would watch carefully for another liquidity sweep, rejection wick, bearish engulfing candle, or M15 structure shift. A clean breakout and sustained acceptance above the previous high would weaken the bearish argument and could indicate continuation toward higher levels. However, if price sweeps the previous high and quickly falls back below it, that would provide a much stronger bearish liquidity signal. 3. Bearish Order Block Near 0.70660–0.70680 The first major Bearish Order Block is positioned around the 0.70660–0.70680 area. This zone is important because it appears immediately before the strong bearish displacement that took price substantially lower. In Smart Money Concepts terminology, an Order Block can represent an area where significant institutional-style order flow may have originated. I would therefore treat this zone as a reaction area rather than assuming it will automatically produce a reversal. If price returns into 0.70660–0.70680 and begins printing rejection candles, long upper wicks, bearish engulfing formations, or a lower-timeframe CHOCH, the bearish setup becomes more convincing. On the other hand, if M15 candles close strongly above the Order Block and subsequent candles hold above it, the zone may have been invalidated. I would especially avoid assuming that a single wick above the Order Block is sufficient confirmation. What matters to me is whether price accepts or rejects the zone after taking liquidity. 4. Lower High And Bearish BOS After the initial high, the chart clearly shows a Lower High followed by a bearish BOS. This is one of the most important structural developments on the chart. The Lower High indicates that buyers were unable to reclaim the previous peak, while the subsequent bearish BOS confirms that price broke an important previous swing low. This transition tells me that the market temporarily shifted from bullish expansion into bearish structure. The bearish BOS is particularly relevant because it was accompanied by strong downward candles rather than a slow drift. That type of displacement indicates stronger momentum. However, the market did not remain bearish permanently. After reaching the lower liquidity region, price began forming a recovery structure. Therefore, I would classify the current market as a recovery within a broader M15 structure rather than automatically labeling it as a fully established bullish trend. 5. Bullish Order Block And First CHOCH The lower-left section of the chart contains a Bullish Order Block near approximately 0.70550–0.70565, followed by a Bullish CHOCH. This is a significant development because the CHOCH indicates that the previous bearish momentum was beginning to lose control. Price reacted from the lower region, started creating stronger bullish candles, and eventually broke a relevant short-term structure point. For me, this is the first major indication that sellers were becoming exhausted. A Bullish CHOCH does not necessarily mean that the market must continue higher indefinitely. Instead, it tells me to start looking for bullish continuation opportunities if subsequent structure confirms the change. The Bullish Order Block becomes especially important if price returns to that region and produces another bullish reaction. If the zone holds, it can serve as a demand area. If price breaks decisively below it, the bullish structure would become weaker. 6. Buy-Side Liquidity And Higher Low The chart also highlights a Higher Low after the bearish decline. This Higher Low is extremely important because it demonstrates that buyers successfully defended a lower price area instead of allowing the market to continue making fresh lows. The lower region around 0.70475–0.70505 contains the strongest visible reaction on the chart. Price aggressively rejected that area and then climbed toward 0.70600 and beyond. I interpret this as evidence that sell-side liquidity below the previous lows was likely consumed before the bullish recovery developed. The important confirmation now is whether price continues producing Higher Lows. As long as the market protects the most recent bullish demand and maintains Higher Low structure, the recovery remains technically supported. A decisive break beneath the major Higher Low would change my view and could reopen the downside toward the previous liquidity area. 7. Bullish FVG Around 0.70520–0.70540 The chart marks a Bullish FVG in the central-lower region. A Fair Value Gap represents an imbalance created by strong directional movement, and traders often monitor these zones because price may later return to rebalance part or all of the imbalance. In this chart, the Bullish FVG supports the idea that the upward move from the lower structure contained strong displacement. I would not automatically expect the entire FVG to be filled. Instead, I would watch how price behaves if it retraces into the zone. A shallow retracement followed by bullish rejection would indicate that buyers remain active. A deeper retracement through the entire FVG would suggest weakening momentum. If the FVG combines with a Bullish Order Block or Higher Low, the confluence becomes more meaningful. Therefore, I consider this region an important support area for the broader bullish recovery. 8. Second Bullish CHOCH And Strong Recovery The second Bullish CHOCH shown around the 11 August session is another important structural confirmation. Price moved upward from the lower region, broke previous short-term highs, and established stronger bullish momentum. This movement eventually carried AUDUSD back toward the 0.70650–0.70680 area. I see this as a clear change in short-term order flow. The market transitioned from deep bearish pressure into a bullish recovery, but the recovery is now confronting the same upper resistance region that previously produced selling pressure. This creates an important conflict between bullish momentum and bearish supply. I would therefore avoid chasing a long position directly into the resistance. In my analysis, the better confirmation would be either a clean breakout with acceptance above resistance or a controlled pullback into support followed by another bullish continuation pattern. 9. Major Bearish Order Block At The Recent High The upper-right Bearish Order Block around 0.70660–0.70680 is currently one of the most important zones on the chart. Price climbed directly into this region and then experienced a strong bearish rejection. The subsequent decline was aggressive, showing that sellers were still present. This makes the zone a major supply area. If price returns there again, I would monitor the reaction very closely. A liquidity sweep above the recent high followed by a bearish CHOCH would be particularly significant. Conversely, a strong M15 close above the entire Order Block, followed by a successful retest, would shift the structure toward bullish continuation. Therefore, I would consider 0.70660–0.70680 the main battlefield between buyers and sellers. 10. Bearish FVG Near 0.70525–0.70540 The chart also identifies a Bearish FVG on the right side near approximately 0.70525–0.70540. This zone was created during the bearish displacement from the upper resistance area. Because price has subsequently recovered, this FVG may act as an intermediate reaction zone. If the market falls from the current 0.70620 region, I would watch whether the FVG provides support or whether price passes through it without hesitation. A strong bullish reaction from this imbalance could indicate that buyers are defending the recovery. However, if price breaks below the FVG and then retests it from underneath, the zone could become resistance. That type of flip would strengthen the bearish continuation scenario. 11. Current Price Around 0.70620 And Immediate Resistance Current price around 0.70620 is sitting very close to the marked 0.70629 level. This makes the present area particularly important. The market has already traveled significantly upward from the lower liquidity zone, so buyers now need to prove that they can maintain momentum above this resistance. I would not consider the current candle alone enough to determine direction. If buyers push through 0.70629 and establish consecutive M15 closes above it, the next objective would be the 0.70650–0.70680 resistance and ultimately the previous high around 0.70700+. If sellers defend 0.70629 and price falls below 0.70600, the market could rotate toward the 0.70577–0.70550 region. Therefore, 0.70629 is functioning as an immediate decision point. 12. Bullish Scenario The bullish scenario requires confirmation rather than simply assuming continuation. I would first want to see price hold above 0.70620–0.70629 and then produce a clean M15 breakout through the nearby resistance. If price reaches 0.70650–0.70680 and successfully breaks the Bearish Order Block, the next important target would be the previous high around 0.70700–0.70720. A successful retest after the breakout would make the bullish structure stronger. The ideal bullish sequence for me would be liquidity interaction, BOS, retest, and continuation. If price creates a new Higher Low above 0.70600 after breaking resistance, that would further support continuation. In that situation, the previous high becomes a logical liquidity target rather than an immediate reversal assumption. 13. Bearish Scenario The bearish scenario becomes stronger if price repeatedly fails around 0.70629–0.70680 and produces clear rejection. A sweep of the recent high followed by a bearish CHOCH would be particularly attractive from a structural perspective. If price then breaks below 0.70600 and continues through 0.70577, the bearish momentum could target the Bearish FVG around 0.70525–0.70540. A further break could expose the Bullish Order Block around 0.70500 and eventually the major lower liquidity area around 0.70475–0.70480. I would consider the bearish scenario invalidated if price decisively breaks and holds above the major Bearish Order Block. 14. My Final M15 Bias My overall reading is neutral-to-bullish while above the major Higher Low, but cautious near the upper Bearish Order Block. The chart clearly shows a strong bullish recovery from the lower liquidity region, two Bullish CHOCH developments, Higher Low formation, and upward displacement. However, price has reached an area where sellers previously demonstrated significant strength. For me, the most important levels are 0.70629 as the immediate decision level, 0.70660–0.70680 as the major Bearish Order Block, 0.70525–0.70540 as the important FVG region, and approximately 0.70475–0.70505 as the deeper liquidity and demand area. I would prefer confirmation instead of predicting blindly. Above the Bearish Order Block, bullish continuation becomes stronger; rejection from that zone followed by bearish structure would favor a pullback. This analysis is based strictly on the structure visible in your M15 chart and should be treated as a technical scenario, not a guaranteed trade outcome.