FX.co ★ Der | GBP/USD

The GBP/USD pair traded with a distinct negative bias for a second consecutive session during Thursday's Asian trading hours, slipping below the pivotal 1.3500 psychological handle as a modest rebound in the US Dollar (USD) weighed on Cable. Despite the immediate softness, aggressive downside follow-through remains somewhat constrained as global FX traders deliberately refrain from committing to heavy directional positions ahead of a major UK macroeconomic data release, anchored by the preliminary second-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report. In the background, underlying macro dynamics continue to favor the greenback, driven primarily by persistent inflation risks associated with elevated and volatile global crude oil prices. These energy-driven cost pressures have sustained market expectations that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) may be forced to implement an additional interest rate hike during 2026. Coupled with ongoing safe-haven demand generated by lingering Middle East geopolitical friction—specifically surrounding the standoff between the United States and Iran—the US Dollar has successfully extended its recovery from post-Consumer Price Index (CPI) swing lows, creating a firm structural headwind for Sterling. From a technical chart perspective, the four-hour (H4) price action demonstrates that, despite an overnight bullish spike that briefly pierced higher levels, spot prices have largely been bound within a recognizable one-week consolidation range. When evaluated within the context of Cable's broader rally that originated in late July, this sideways movement can be interpreted as a bullish digest or flag phase, allowing the market to absorb gains and reset overbought conditions before determining the next major directional leg. Furthermore, GBP/USD continues to trade above its key 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the four-hour chart, preserving a mildly bullish underlying trend structure over the short-to-medium term. However, short-term momentum indicators reflect a noticeably more cautious, neutral sentiment that advises against aggressive positioning. The 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the four-hour timeframe continues to hover near the 50 neutral threshold, indicating a balance between buying and selling pressure rather than strong directional impulse. Simultaneously, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator has drifted slightly below its zero signal line, signaling a mild loss of bullish momentum and pointing toward an extended duration of range-bound consolidation rather than an immediate, powerful breakout. For short-term price levels, immediate downside risk centers on the pivot zone surrounding 1.3491. A sustained break below this current pivot area could trigger algorithmic technical selling, leaving spot prices vulnerable to a deeper leg lower toward the rising 100-period SMA on the four-hour chart, currently located near 1.3415. A resilient defense of this dynamic support cluster would successfully maintain the broader bullish framework, offering dip-buyers an attractive entry area. Conversely, a clean four-hour close beneath the 100-period SMA would dismantle the immediate bullish setup, exposing the pair to a far deeper corrective retracement.