FX.co ★ FX-Perfact | USD/JPY

USD/JPY H4 Timeframe: Based on the USD/JPY chart on the H4 timeframe, the current price movement structure shows a significant trend change after the sharp decline at the end of July. The latest price is around 158,989, still below the 100-day Moving Average (MA 100) and 200-day Moving Average (MA 200). This condition indicates that bearish pressure remains dominant in the intermediate perspective, although in the short term, the price has shown a recovery from the lows around 155,220. The movement following this sharp decline indicates buyers' efforts to build a recovery phase, but so far it has not been able to change the overall bearish structure. Before the major decline occurred, USD/JPY appeared to be in a fairly strong bullish trend. The price moved gradually up from the 159.00 area to 163.979, while the 100-day and 200-day moving averages were both below the price. The 100-day moving average (MA 100), shown by the blue line, also moved upward and served as dynamic support. This condition reflects buyer dominance in the previous period. However, the situation changed drastically when the price failed to maintain the 162,946 level and subsequently experienced aggressive selling pressure. The breakout of the 100-day moving average (MA), the 200-day moving average (MA), and several horizontal support levels within a relatively short period of time demonstrated a strong shift in market sentiment. From the perspective of the 100-day moving average (MA), the shift in trend character is quite clear. During the previous bullish phase, the 100-day moving average (MA) climbed and served as a defensive area during corrections. After a sharp decline in late July, the 100-day moving average (MA) began to turn downward. Currently, the 100-day moving average (MA) hovers around 160.00, well above 158.989. This indicates that the price has not yet returned to the medium-term equilibrium zone. As long as the price remains below the 100-day moving average (MA), any increase could potentially face selling pressure as it approaches that line.

Meanwhile, the 200-day moving average (MA) is higher, around 160.60. The 200-day moving average (MA) had previously been rising, but after the sharp decline, the price began to lose its bullish slope and tended to move sideways and then decline. A price position below the 200-day moving average (MA) and below the 100-day moving average (MA) is a bearish trend. Furthermore, the 100-day moving average (MA) has experienced a sharp decline and is approaching the 200-day moving average (MA) from below. If the two moving averages then form a more clearly bearish pattern, it will further strengthen the indication that the USD/JPY's intermediate trend has shifted from bullish to bearish. Nevertheless, the price movement after reaching the 155,220 area cannot be ignored. From there, buyers managed to stage a fairly strong rebound. The price then rose past 156,118, 156,677, 157,253, and 157,931. This sequence indicates that buyers still have the ability to accumulate and push prices higher in the short term. The upward structure from the 155,220 area also shows the gradual formation of higher lows. Thus, there is a divergence between the still-bearish intermediate trend and the short-term momentum that has experienced a bullish recovery. The 158,592 area currently serves as important horizontal support. The last price was slightly above this level, so this area deserves serious attention. If USD/JPY is able to maintain its position above 158,592 and then move higher again, an opportunity to test the 159,515 resistance area will open. The 159,515 area is a crucial zone because it previously served as a consolidation area and the peak of the most recent rebound. A valid breakout above 159.515 would be a positive signal for buyers and could potentially push the price towards the 100-day moving average (MA) area around 160.00–160.10. If the price successfully breaks through the 100-day moving average (MA), the next resistance level is around 160.640, followed by 161.269. The 161.269 level is a horizontal resistance level that was previously a key part of the price movement structure. If the price breaks through 161.269 with a strong H4 candle and sustained momentum, the bearish structure will begin to lose strength. Under such conditions, attention can then be directed to 162.268 and 162.946. However, this scenario currently requires confirmation as the price remains quite far from both major moving averages. Conversely, if the price fails to maintain 158.592, bearish pressure could potentially increase again. The next support level is at 157.931. This level is quite important because it previously resisted selling pressure and then became part of the rebound structure. If 157,931 is convincingly broken, the price has the potential to move towards 157,253. A breakout of this level would open up downside potential towards 156,677 and 156,118. If all of these support areas fail to hold, the market could potentially retest the 155,220 area, the lowest point of the previous sharp decline. From a price action perspective, recent conditions indicate a consolidation phase around 159.00–159.50. After rebounding from the 155.220 area, the price did not immediately resume its upward movement aggressively, but instead began to move sideways. This indicates that buyers began to lose momentum as they approached the resistance area of 159.515. Several candles around this area showed rejection and failed to produce a sustained breakout. This situation indicates that sellers are still actively defending the area above 159.50. Another important consideration is the distance between the price and the 100- and 200-day moving averages. Although the price has recovered considerably from its low, it remains below both moving averages. This means that the rebound thus far is more appropriately viewed as a recovery or technical rebound than confirmation of a bullish trend reversal. Stronger bullish confirmation will only emerge if the price breaks through the 100- and then the 200-day moving averages, accompanied by the formation of consistently higher highs and higher lows on the H4 timeframe. In a bearish scenario, a failure to break through 159.515, followed by a 4-hour close below 158.592, would signal sellers' resumption of control. The next move could lead to 157.931 and 157.253. Conversely, if the price is able to stay above 158.592 and break through 159.515, the opportunity for further upside towards 160.00–160.60 increases. However, the 100- and 200-day moving averages (MAs) will pose a significant barrier, as both indicators are currently above the price.