FX.co ★ Crude | EUR/USD

The "1.1711 Gateway": EUR/USD Consolidation Pauses Near 1.1655 as US Dollar Bounces Ahead of Key Macro Event Risk The EUR/USD currency pair is experiencing a temporary corrective retreat, pulling back from its four-day high of 1.1711 to settle near 1.1655 during the European session. The minor dip is driven primarily by a modest safe-haven rebound in the US Dollar (USD), with the US Dollar Index (DXY) picking up 0.1% to near 99.07. FX market participants are exercising tactical caution ahead of critical economic releases: the upcoming U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index for July and strategic policy commentary expected at the Jackson Hole Symposium. Institutional market strategists at Scotiabank emphasize that while significant event risk creates room for short-term USD consolidation, the broader downward trend for the Greenback remains intact. Underpinning the single currency’s resilience is a supportive European macro backdrop. Analysts at Nomura highlight expanding expectations for a September European Central Bank (ECB) interest rate hike, buoyed by solid Eurozone activity metrics. Additionally, the ECB’s latest Consumer Expectations Survey indicates that 3-year ahead median inflation expectations declined by 0.1 percentage point to 2.7%, while 5-year expectations held steady at 2.4%, indicating stabilizing medium-term inflation dynamics. Supported by divergent rate expectations and technical buying on dips, EUR/USD continues to maintain a underlying bullish bias above dynamic moving average baselines. Technical Trend Structure: The 1.1577 "Demand Floor" and the 1.1800 "Supply Citadel" The daily EUR/USD price action demonstrates an intact near-term bullish structure holding comfortably above key dynamic moving average baselines. The 1.1800 "Supply Citadel": The primary overhead macro objective for Euro bulls is the 1.1800 key horizontal barrier (May High Confluence). A decisive breakout and daily close above the intermediate 1.1711 August high unlocks a direct technical runway toward this major resistance level. The 1.1655 "Pivot Node": The immediate structural area of interest sits around 1.1655. Reclaiming momentum above this pivot keeps near-term buying interest active. The 1.1577 "Support Floor": On the downside, critical dynamic support is anchored by the 200-day / 20-day EMA cluster at 1.1577 – 1.1622 (reinforced by the June 15 High). Holding above this baseline preserves the dominant bullish momentum. Strategic Trading: Decision Nodes and Tactical Scenarios Navigating current EUR/USD price action requires watching price acceptance relative to key technical levels ahead of U.S. macro data. Signal Type Entry Trigger Primary Target (TP) Protective Stop (SL) Tactical Rationale Bullish Breakout Daily Close > 1.1711 1.1800 / 1.1920 1.1620 Trend continuation play following clearance of the August high, backed by ECB rate-hike expectations. Bullish Rebound H4 Bullish Rejection > 1.1577 1.1711 / 1.1800 1.1530 Buying the dip near the 20-day EMA support baseline with RSI remaining in firm positive territory. Key Tactical Milestones: Immediate Resistance: The 1.1711 peak. Clearing this hurdle re-establishes the broader uptrend toward 1.1800. Critical Support: The 1.1577 – 1.1622 dynamic demand floor. Maintaining price action above this zone protects the near-term structural bias. In summary, EUR/USD is consolidating constructively near 1.1655. With the RSI hovering around 67 to reflect firm upside momentum, technical and fundamental indicators favor an eventual retest of 1.1800, provided the 1.1577 baseline support holds.