FX.co ★ berta.hill | EUR/USD

Bearish Pressure Below Pivot 1.1538, Watch Out for Rebound from Oversold Area

On the EUR/USD H1 timeframe chart, the current price structure shows a bearish tendency, with price around 1.1535, slightly below the daily Pivot Point 1.1538. The price position relative to the pivot level is the main concern because 1.1538 can act as the next directional decision area. As long as price cannot return to and hold above the pivot, selling pressure should still be considered. From the candlestick structure, price previously declined quite significantly from the 1.1600 area to near 1.1530. After that decline, movement began to form consolidation in the 1.1530–1.1550 range. However, the red MA line is still moving down and is above the current price. That condition indicates that short-term trend momentum is still biased negative. The blue MA is also well above price, so visually the H1 structure still does not show a strong bullish reversal. Pivot level 1.1538 becomes a key zone. If price remains below 1.1538 and a rejection occurs during a pullback, a bearish scenario can be considered with the first target toward Support 1 at 1.1525. If selling pressure continues and 1.1525 is convincingly broken with an H1 candle, attention can next be directed to Support 2 at 1.1513, then Support 3 at 1.1500. However, the Stochastic (5,3,3) indicator is around the 11–17 area, which means it has entered the oversold region. This condition does not automatically mean price must rise, but it indicates that room for a rebound or temporary correction remains open. Therefore, chasing sell positions when price is already too close to support should be done cautiously. It is more ideal to wait for a pullback first or confirmation of a support breakdown. Conversely, if EUR/USD manages to break back above 1.1538 and an H1 candle can hold above that level, the short-term bearish scenario needs to be re-evaluated. In that case, price could potentially test Resistance 1 at 1.1550. If 1.1550 is breached and turns into support, the next targets are 1.1563, then 1.1575. Trading Strategy Bearish scenario: wait for price to pull back to around 1.1538–1.1550, then look for bearish rejection signs. Targets would be on the rebound. Risk management, candle confirmation, and reactions should be directed stepwise to 1.1525 → 1.1513 → 1.1500. Stop loss should preferably be placed based on swing high structure and risk tolerance, not just a fixed number. Bullish scenario: do not rush to buy just because Stochastic is oversold. Wait for a breakout and H1 confirmation above 1.1538, with potential tests of 1.1550 → 1.1563 → 1.1575. In conclusion, 1.1538 is the main decision level. Price below the pivot maintains a bearish bias, but the Stochastic being oversold increases the likelihood of a rebound. Risk management, candle confirmation, and price reactions around the pivot and support/resistance remain important factors before taking a position.