FX.co ★ Jackroay | XAU/USD, GOLD

XAUUSDm M15 — COMPLETE TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 1. FVG + ORDER BLOCK RELATIONSHIP The chart shows a clear relationship between FVG and ORDER BLOCK areas across the M15 structure. I can see that price has moved through several impulsive legs, leaving imbalance areas behind the strong candles. These FVG zones are important because they represent areas where price moved rapidly and did not spend much time trading. On the chart, the FVG areas are positioned around previous momentum movements, while the ORDER BLOCK areas provide broader zones where buying or selling pressure previously appeared. The relationship between both concepts becomes more important when price returns to an FVG close to an ORDER BLOCK. In that situation, I would watch the reaction of the candles instead of assuming an immediate continuation. The lower green ORDER BLOCK (DEMAND) represents a major buying zone, while the upper red/pink supply area represents an important selling area. Price is currently positioned much closer to the upper supply structure, meaning the reaction around this area is important for the next M15 movement. I would therefore monitor whether price accepts above the FVG and supply area or rejects it back toward lower liquidity and demand. 2. Final Outlook — Bullish Structure at Major Supply The overall visible structure on the chart remains strongly bullish from the lower-left section toward the recent highs. I can see a sequence of higher advances, followed by retracements and another expansion toward the upper region. The strongest bullish move pushed price from the lower demand area toward the 4390 region, creating a major momentum expansion. However, the important point is that bullish structure has now reached a major supply area. The current price around 4378.062 is sitting just below the visible 4381.585 level and inside the area where previous reactions occurred. This creates a decision zone rather than a simple directional area. If buyers maintain control and candles continue closing above the supply structure, the bullish structure can remain active. If price repeatedly fails to hold above this region, the same supply can produce another rejection. I therefore see the chart as bullish in structure but currently facing resistance from the major supply region. The next confirmed candle reaction is more important than simply assuming that the previous bullish momentum will continue. 3. Bearish Rejection Scenario — Supply Reaction The BEARISH REJECTION SCENARIO is clearly connected with the upper supply region. Price previously reached the upper area around the 4390 region and produced repeated candles with rejection and consolidation. This tells me that the supply area has already attracted significant reaction. If price continues failing to establish sustained closes above the upper supply boundary, sellers can attempt to push price downward from this region. The first indication would be repeated upper wicks, smaller bullish candles, or strong bearish candles appearing directly inside or below supply. I would then watch the nearby structure for a downside MSS or another bearish structural indication. A rejection from supply does not automatically mean that the entire bullish trend has ended. It can simply represent a retracement toward the lower FVG, ORDER BLOCK (SUPPLY), or ORDER BLOCK (DEMAND). Therefore, I would separate a short-term supply rejection from a complete bearish reversal. The chart needs actual structural confirmation before treating a rejection as a larger downside shift. 4. Bullish Continuation Scenario — BOS Above Supply The BULLISH CONTINUATION SCENARIO depends mainly on BOS ABOVE SUPPLY. The chart shows the recent price action consolidating around 4378 while the major resistance area is positioned above the current market. For a continuation structure, I would look for a strong bullish candle to break and close above the established supply/high region rather than relying only on a temporary wick. A clean BOS would indicate that buyers have successfully moved through the previous selling area. After such a break, I would then watch whether price retests the broken structure and holds it as support. This retest would be important because a breakout followed by immediate failure can become a false breakout. If price breaks above supply, holds the area, and produces another bullish expansion, the chart would show stronger continuation behavior. The next objective would then be represented by the higher visible price region around the recent highs near 4392 and potentially toward the upper chart boundary around 4402.745. 5. Current Price Action — SELL SIDE LIQUIDITY (SSL) The current price action is closely connected with SELL SIDE LIQUIDITY (SSL) and the recent consolidation around the 4378 region. The chart shows price moving sideways after the latest bullish recovery, with several candles clustering near the current-price line. This type of consolidation means that liquidity can develop around recent swing points. I would pay particular attention to whether price takes liquidity below a nearby short-term low and then quickly recovers, or whether it breaks downward and begins accepting below that area. A liquidity sweep followed by strong recovery can support a continuation setup, while a clean breakdown with follow-through can support a deeper retracement. The SSL concept should therefore be considered together with MSS and FVG rather than independently. The current 4378.062 area is important because price is sitting close to the supply structure while also consolidating. I would wait for the reaction around liquidity instead of treating every small candle as a confirmed directional signal. 6. ORDER BLOCK (SUPPLY) — Major Selling Zone The ORDER BLOCK (SUPPLY) visible on the chart represents a significant area where selling pressure can become active. It is positioned below and around the recent upper-side reaction structure, with price previously moving sharply away from this area. When price returns to a supply ORDER BLOCK, I would expect the candles to provide information about whether sellers are defending it. The chart already shows a previous bearish reaction from the upper region, followed by another bullish recovery. This makes the supply area particularly important because it has already demonstrated that price can react there. A strong bearish candle from the supply zone would increase the importance of the rejection scenario, while repeated bullish closes through it would weaken the supply response. I would not treat the rectangle alone as confirmation. The confirmation should come from candle behavior, structure, and preferably an MSS or BOS after the reaction. The supply zone is therefore a decision area between continuation and retracement. 7. STRONG BULLISH MOVE — Momentum Expansion The STRONG BULLISH MOVE shown on the left side of the chart is one of the clearest structural features. Price moved upward with strong momentum from the lower region, producing multiple bullish candles and expanding rapidly toward higher levels. This type of movement demonstrates strong directional participation during that particular phase. The move also explains why several FVG zones were created during the expansion. I can see that price did not move upward in a smooth sequence; instead, there were smaller pauses and retracements before another bullish expansion occurred. The important technical point is that strong momentum creates reference zones that can later become reaction areas. If price retraces into those areas and buyers respond, the previous momentum can potentially continue. If those areas fail and price starts closing below important swing structures, the bullish momentum becomes weaker. For the present chart, the historical bullish expansion remains the foundation of the larger visible bullish structure.

8. FVG — Fair Value Gap Zones Several FVG — Fair Value Gap Zones are visible throughout the chart. These zones developed mainly during rapid price expansion where candles moved aggressively and left relatively inefficient trading areas behind. I would treat each FVG according to its position within the larger structure. The lower FVG areas are particularly relevant if price starts retracing from the current supply region. A retracement into an FVG followed by rejection can indicate that the imbalance is being respected. On the other hand, if price completely passes through an FVG and continues closing beyond it, that zone becomes less useful as immediate support or resistance. The upper FVG close to the recent price area is especially important because it is positioned close to the supply structure and current consolidation. I would therefore watch whether candles hold the FVG, fill it, or move decisively through it. FVG should be used as a reaction zone rather than an automatic buy or sell signal. 9. ORDER BLOCK (DEMAND) — Major Buying Zone The ORDER BLOCK (DEMAND) — Major Buying Zone shown in green below the market is an important support reference on this chart. It is located significantly below the current price, meaning that the market has considerable distance between current price and the deeper demand region. The earlier bullish movement originated from lower areas and subsequently expanded upward, making the demand region relevant to the broader structure. If price experiences a larger retracement, I would watch the demand ORDER BLOCK for signs of stabilization. A strong rejection from this area, followed by bullish candles and an MSS, could indicate that buyers are attempting to restore the upward structure. However, if price closes decisively below the demand zone and continues lower, the original bullish structure would become weaker. At the moment, the demand zone should be viewed as a major structural reference rather than an immediate current-price signal because price is presently trading much closer to the upper supply region. 10. MSS — Break of Structure The MSS — Break of Structure shown on the chart provides an important transition reference. Market structure shifts become meaningful when price stops respecting the previous short-term sequence and begins moving through a significant swing point. I would use MSS as confirmation after a liquidity event or reaction from an FVG or ORDER BLOCK. If price rejects the upper supply region and then breaks an important short-term low, that would give the bearish scenario greater structural confirmation. Conversely, if price reacts from a lower FVG or demand zone and breaks a short-term swing high, the bullish structure would receive confirmation. The chart therefore contains both bullish and bearish possibilities, but MSS can help separate a simple pullback from a genuine structural transition. I would not consider a small intrabar movement enough for confirmation. A meaningful candle close beyond the relevant structural point would provide stronger evidence. 11. Supply Reaction and Recent Consolidation The recent candles around 4378 show consolidation following the sharp recovery from the lower region. Price previously dropped toward the 4340–4350 area, then buyers produced a strong recovery back toward 4380 and above. After reaching the upper region, price again moved sideways. This sequence shows that both sides have been active around the current levels. The recovery demonstrates bullish momentum, but the consolidation near supply shows that buyers have not yet produced a decisive continuation beyond the previous high area. I would therefore monitor the size and closing position of the next candles. Strong bullish bodies closing near their highs would indicate increasing buying pressure. Conversely, repeated small candles and upper wicks around supply would suggest that buyers are struggling to obtain acceptance above the resistance structure. The current consolidation is therefore a preparation zone where the next BOS or MSS could provide clearer direction. 12. Bullish Continuation After Retest A bullish continuation after retest would require a sequence rather than a single candle. First, price would need to establish a meaningful BOS above the relevant supply structure. Second, the market would ideally return toward the broken area without producing a strong bearish reversal. Third, the retest would need to hold, followed by another bullish expansion. This type of sequence would strengthen the interpretation that previous supply has been absorbed or overcome. The chart already shows a strong historical bullish movement, so a confirmed breakout could connect the current consolidation with the earlier momentum structure. I would particularly monitor the 4381.585 area and the recent upper swing region around 4392.165. A sustained move above the upper structure would change the immediate relationship between price and supply. However, if price only spikes above resistance and then closes back below it, I would treat that as a potential liquidity sweep or rejection rather than confirmed continuation. 13. Bearish Rejection and Downside Path If the upper supply area continues to reject price, the bearish path could begin with a move back below the current consolidation. The first stage would be a loss of the immediate support around the current price area, followed by a stronger bearish candle sequence. After that, I would watch the FVG zones below because they can act as intermediate reaction areas. The next important references are the lower ORDER BLOCK (SUPPLY) and the deeper ORDER BLOCK (DEMAND). A bearish move does not automatically mean that the entire market has changed to bearish. If price retraces into an FVG and then produces a strong bullish reaction, the decline could remain only a corrective move. For a larger bearish structure, I would want to see successive lower highs and lower lows together with a confirmed MSS. This distinction is important because the chart's previous structure remains strongly bullish from the lower levels. 14. Final Outlook — Structure, Liquidity and Confirmation My final reading of this chart is that XAUUSDm M15 has a bullish structural foundation but is currently positioned at a major supply decision area. The strongest bullish move has already carried price from the lower demand region toward the upper 4390 area, while the present price around 4378.062 is consolidating close to the 4381.585 reference. The main bullish confirmation would be a clean BOS above supply followed by acceptance or a successful retest. The main bearish confirmation would be a rejection from supply followed by MSS and continuation toward the lower FVG or ORDER BLOCK areas. The SELL SIDE LIQUIDITY (SSL), FVG, ORDER BLOCK (SUPPLY), ORDER BLOCK (DEMAND), MSS and BOS should therefore be read together rather than separately. I would give the greatest importance to candle closing behavior because a wick alone can represent liquidity collection rather than genuine breakout. Overall, the chart shows bullish momentum meeting major supply, creating two clearly defined technical scenarios. The next confirmed structural movement should determine whether the market continues toward the upper highs or begins a deeper retracement toward the lower buying zones.