FX.co ★ remington.kihn | USD/JPY

USD/JPY Timeframe H4

Based on the USD/JPY chart on the H4 timeframe, the current price movement shows a recovery phase after experiencing very strong selling pressure in early September 2026. The USD/JPY pair had previously been moving in a bullish trend with price fluctuations in the 159.00 area up to near 160.00. However, the selling pressure that emerged in early September caused a significant change in market structure, marked by a sharp decline from the 159.50 area down to the 153.00–153.40 region. The decline demonstrated a fairly strong dominance of sellers, especially when the price broke several horizontal support levels and moved below the Moving Average 100 (MA 100) and Moving Average 200 (MA 200). After reaching the low point, the price began to recover gradually. Buyers re-entered the market and pushed USD/JPY up toward the 158.80–159.00 area before facing selling pressure again. In the latest trading visible on the chart, the price is around 157.53. This condition indicates that USD/JPY is in a consolidation phase after a significant rebound. Technically, the market has not fully confirmed the continuation of a bullish trend, but selling pressure has also not succeeded in returning the price to the previous lows. Therefore, the next movement will be heavily influenced by the price's response to the MA 100, MA 200, and a number of horizontal support and resistance levels visible on the chart. Analysis of Moving Average 100 and Moving Average 200, The MA 100 shown with a blue line shows a fairly clear change of direction throughout the observation period. From early August to late August, the MA 100 moved relatively sideways to slightly downward, following price action that tended to consolidate around the 159.00 area. When selling pressure increased in early September, the MA 100 began to decline sharply. That condition depicts weakening bullish momentum and increasing seller dominance in the medium term. After the price reached the 153.00 area, the movement began to change. The price rise that took place since mid-September pushed the MA 100 to form a flat curve and then reverse upward. On the latest chart, the MA 100 is around the 156.30–156.50 area, just below the current market price. This change of direction in the MA 100 indicates that recovery momentum is beginning to form. As long as the price can stay above the MA 100, the chance of continued gains remains open, especially if buyers can overcome selling pressure around the nearest resistance. However, the MA 100 cannot be used as the sole basis to conclude that the bullish trend has fully returned. A price above the MA 100 indicates that medium-term recovery momentum is still in progress, but stronger confirmation requires the price to break key resistance and maintain a position above the MA 200. Meanwhile, the MA 200 shown with a red line still indicates a relatively bearish trend characteristic. This line had previously been rising slowly when the price was still around 159.00–160.00, but then reversed downward after the sharp decline in early September. Up to the latest position on the chart, the MA 200 is still around the 157.40–157.60 area and tends to flatten with a downward tilt. The last price position around 157.53 shows that USD/JPY is interacting directly with the MA 200. This situation is important because the MA 200 can act as a dynamic resistance. If the price fails to stay above this line, selling pressure could increase and push the price to re-test lower supports. Conversely, if the H4 candle can consistently close above the MA 200, that could be an early indication of a shift in momentum toward a stronger bullish trend. Thus, the relationship between the MA 100 and MA 200 currently shows a transition phase. The MA 100 is beginning to turn upward, while the MA 200 is still relatively bearish. As long as both indicators do not show aligned bullish directions, USD/JPY's movement should still be viewed as a recovery within a structure that previously experienced a sharp decline. Analysis of Horizontal Support and Resistance, The first resistance to note is at level 158.16. This level is a horizontal area that previously acted as a price reaction area during the recovery process. After USD/JPY rose from the 153.00 area, the price managed to move past this level and continued to strengthen toward 158.80–159.00. However, that rise could not be maintained. The emergence of selling pressure around the recovery peak shows that sellers still have significant interest in the upper resistance area. If buyers regain momentum, an H4 candle close above 158.16 could open the opportunity to re-test the 159.07 area. The 159.07 level is an important horizontal resistance because it is close to the consolidation area in August and the area before the sharp decline in early September. A valid breakout above 159.07 would confirm that the recovery is strengthening and open room toward the major resistance at 160.40. The 160.40 level is the highest resistance boundary visible on the chart. This area is an important zone that previously limited bullish movement at the start of the observation period. To reach that level, USD/JPY needs to pass several technical hurdles first, especially 158.16 and 159.07. Therefore, a rise toward 160.40 still requires confirmation of sustained momentum. On the other hand, the nearest support is at level 156.52. This area is significant because it is close to the MA 100 position and is a zone that could potentially hold corrections. If USD/JPY declines from 157.53, buyer response around 156.52 will be one indicator to assess whether the recovery momentum is still intact. The price holding above that level will show that buyers can still maintain the short-term upstructure. If the 156.52 level is breached with strong selling pressure, attention will next turn to the 155.34 support. This level is a horizontal area that previously acted as a price reaction zone after the sharp decline in early September. A break below 155.34 could weaken the recovery structure and increase the likelihood of the price moving toward the 153.98 support. The 153.98 support becomes an important level in the medium-term movement structure. This area is around the consolidation zone where USD/JPY formed a base after the sharp decline. If selling pressure continues to rise and the price approaches that level, buyers need to show a strong enough response to prevent the formation of a new lower low. Meanwhile, the 152.89 level becomes an extreme support on the chart. This level is below the lowest area formed during the September decline. If the price breaks 153.98 and then moves below 152.89, that condition will indicate a broader market structure weakening, while also reducing the validity of the ongoing bullish recovery scenario. Buyer and Seller Momentum and Next Movement Scenarios, Based on the H4 candlestick structure, buyers have shown the ability to take over momentum after the price reached the 153.00–153.40 area. The rise that continued up to near 159.00 shows there was significant demand in the low-price area. However, the failure to maintain gains above 158.16 and the appearance of a correction after reaching 158.80 show that sellers are still active in defending resistance. Currently, the price position around 157.53 shows a temporary balance between both parties. The price is still above the MA 100 but is facing the MA 200. This condition makes the 157.40–157.60 area an important confirmation zone. An H4 candle close above the MA 200, accompanied by a rise that is able to break 158.16, would strengthen the indication that buyers have regained control of the market. In that case, a move toward 159.07 could be the next technical target, with 160.40 as a further resistance if bullish momentum is maintained. Conversely, if the price continues to be rejected around the MA 200 and moves down to break 156.52, selling pressure could become more dominant. A decline below that support could push the price toward 155.34. If 155.34 is also breached, then the chance of testing 153.98 will increase. This bearish scenario will be further confirmed if the MA 100 turns downward again and the price forms a series of lower highs and lower lows on the H4 timeframe. It should be noted that these levels are technical references based on the available chart, not a guarantee that the price will move toward specific targets. Confirmation through H4 candle closes, volume or momentum available on platforms, and fundamental conditions of USD and JPY remain relevant in assessing the validity of movements. Conclusion, Overall, USD/JPY on the H4 timeframe is in a recovery phase after a sharp decline in early September. The last price around 157.53 has returned above the MA 100 which is beginning to slope upward, but it is still facing the MA 200 which tends to be flat to bearish. This shows that bullish momentum is beginning to form, but a medium-term trend reversal has not yet been fully confirmed. The 158.16 area is the nearest resistance that buyers need to break to open the opportunity to rise toward 159.07 and then 160.40. Meanwhile, the 156.52 support is an important threshold to maintain the recovery structure. If that support is breached, the price could continue correcting toward 155.34, 153.98, and down to 152.89 if selling pressure intensifies. Thus, USD/JPY is still in a directional decision phase. Bullish confirmation will be stronger if the price can hold above the MA 200 and break the 158.16 resistance. Conversely, failure to hold the 156.52 support will increase the risk of further weakening. Discipline in waiting for price confirmation at those horizontal levels is an important part of risk management and avoiding decisions based on short-lived movements.