FX.co ★ karl.vonrueden | Bitcoin/BTCUSD forecasts

BITCOIN Timeframe H1

Based on the BITCOIN chart on the H1 timeframe, the current price movement is around 83.383, after previously experiencing a fairly strong rise from the 80.000 area to near 87.000. After reaching that peak, the price then corrected and entered a relatively long consolidation phase. This condition shows that the Bitcoin market on the H1 timeframe is in a phase of seeking a new balance between buying pressure and selling pressure. The price position relative to MA 100 and MA 200, as well as its reactions to several horizontal support and resistance levels, become important factors to read the possible direction of the next move. At the beginning of the chart it can be seen that Bitcoin experienced a significant increase from around 80.000–81.000. That increase pushed the price through several resistance areas until reaching around 87.000–87.400. After reaching that area, bullish momentum began to lose strength. The price then formed a correction and moved down toward the 84.000 area. From a price structure perspective, that condition indicates that the previous uptrend has weakened and turned into consolidation. The price no longer forms a strong series of higher highs, while several rebounds that occurred have not yet managed to produce a sustained break of the main resistance. Looking at the position of the MA 100 shown by the blue line, this indicator previously rose quite clearly following Bitcoin’s bullish momentum. However, after the price entered the correction phase, the slope of the MA 100 began to flatten. Currently Bitcoin’s price is around or slightly below the MA 100. This condition needs attention because the MA 100 on this chart functions as a dynamic resistance area. When the price is below the MA 100, the medium-term momentum on the H1 timeframe tends not to be fully bullish. To restore stronger buying pressure, Bitcoin needs to be able to break above the MA 100 and maintain trading above it. Meanwhile, the MA 200 shown with a red line is slightly below the current price. The position of the MA 200 is quite important because that indicator is often used to view longer-term trend tendencies compared to the MA 100. On the chart the MA 200 still has a positive slope although it is not very steep. This indicates that the prior upstructure has not been completely broken. As long as Bitcoin can hold above the MA 200 and the horizontal support area below it, the possibility of a rebound remains open. The difference in position between the MA 100 and MA 200 also provides an interesting picture. The MA 100 is higher than the MA 200, which generally still indicates that the medium-term average price structure is above the longer-term average price. However, the gap between them is narrowing due to the consolidation. If the MA 100 falls again and crosses the MA 200 from above, that condition could be a signal that the previous bullish momentum is weakening. Conversely, if the price can rise back above the MA 100 and the MA 100 moves away from the MA 200 again, the bullish structure will receive additional confirmation. On the horizontal support side, the area around 82.898–82.900 is a fairly important level. The chart shows the price reacted several times around that area. When the price fell on September 28, selling pressure brought Bitcoin close to the 82.900 area before buying emerged that pushed the price back up. This shows that the 82.900 area temporarily functions as a fairly significant support. As long as this support is maintained, Bitcoin still has room to rebound toward the resistance above it. If selling pressure becomes stronger and the price convincingly breaks 82.900, the next focus can be directed to the 81.723 area. That level is the next horizontal support clearly seen on the chart. A decline toward this area would indicate the correction has deepened. If 81.723 also fails to hold, the rise from the 80.000 area could suffer greater damage and the market may retest the lower area around 80.000–80.100. Conversely, on the resistance side, the 84.560 area is the nearest horizontal resistance that is very important. This level has been a price reaction area several times and is above Bitcoin’s current position. If BTC can break 84.560 with a strong H1 candle and then maintain that level as support, the chance of recovery toward the 85.400–85.900 area will open further. The 85.933 area becomes the next significant horizontal resistance based on the previous price structure. Above 85.933 there is higher resistance around 87.200–87.400, which is the area that previously became the peak of the rise. If Bitcoin manages to reach that zone again, the market will face a major resistance again. A breakout above that peak would be a more significant structural change because the price would need to be able to produce a new high above the previous peak area. However, as long as the price remains below 85.933 and 87.200–87.400, upward movements can still be categorized as rebounds within a consolidation structure. Recent price action also shows a fairly clear sideways character. After the decline from the mid-85.000 area, Bitcoin moved up and down several times around the MA 100 and MA 200 without producing a truly dominant direction. The relatively tight candles around the 83.000–84.000 area show a tug-of-war between buyers and sellers. Conditions like this are often an accumulation or distribution phase before a larger move occurs. Therefore, breaking horizontal levels becomes more important than merely looking at one or two individual candles. From the buyer’s perspective, the area to watch is Bitcoin’s ability to hold 82.900 while reclaiming the MA 100. If the price can hold above the support and then move past the MA 100, especially accompanied by increased momentum, the rebound structure will become more constructive. The next resistance targets are around 84.560, then 85.933 and further 87.200–87.400. The more resistances that are broken and turn into support, the stronger the indication that bullish momentum is re-forming. Conversely, from the seller’s perspective, Bitcoin’s failure to get past the MA 100 and the 84.560 resistance can maintain selling pressure. If the price then falls and breaks 82.900, bearish pressure could increase and open room toward 81.723. A break of 81.723 would be a more serious signal because the price would not only lose horizontal support but also move further away from the MA 200. In that situation, the area around 80.000 will become an important zone to see whether buyers can defend again. Overall, the MA 100 and MA 200 indicators currently show that Bitcoin is in a transition phase from an uptrend toward consolidation. The MA 200 is still below the price and still has a positive slope, so the medium-term bullish structure has not completely disappeared. However, the price being around or below the MA 100 indicates that bullish momentum has not yet received strong confirmation. Thus, movements between the MA 100, MA 200, support 82.900, and resistance 84.560 become important zones to watch. Conclusion, Bitcoin on the H1 timeframe is currently tending to be in a consolidation condition with weakening bullish momentum. The 82.900 area is the nearest main support, while 84.560 is an important resistance that must be broken to open room toward 85.933 and then 87.200–87.400. The MA 100 is a dynamic resistance that needs to be reclaimed by buyers, while the MA 200 is the support for the longer trend. As long as the price can hold above 82.900 and the MA 200, the chance of a rebound remains open. However, if 82.900 is broken with strong selling pressure, the potential for a correction toward 81.723 or even back to the 80.000 area will increase. Therefore, Bitcoin’s next direction will be largely determined by whether the price can break above the MA 100 and 84.560, or instead lose the 82.900 support downward.