FX.co ★ Der | CL/Crude Oil

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices dipped slightly in Asian trading on Thursday, extending their retreat from multi-week highs near $95. Spot prices recovered from their intraday lows to around $93.25, down less than 1%, as market participants analyzed a complex mix of technical indicators and geopolitical risk factors. Despite recent weakening momentum, uncertainty surrounding global supply continued to weigh on crude oil prices. Moscow publicly accused Kyiv of attacking two Russian refineries, including the 400,000-barrel-per-day Ryazan refinery, claiming the attack violated the energy sector ceasefire agreement brokered by U.S. President Trump. Meanwhile, the escalating military conflict between Saudi Arabia and the Iranian-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen, coupled with the U.S.-Iran naval standoff near the Strait of Hormuz, kept geopolitical risk premiums high, which in turn helped to curb short selling. From a technical analysis perspective, WTI crude oil's failure to break through the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the September/October decline overnight sent a cautious signal to bullish traders. However, given that the subsequent pullback stalled at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level near $92.29, sellers need a clear price move to confirm the end of the rally from the monthly lows. Indicators paint a mixed picture: the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has fallen into negative territory, indicating weakening short-term bullish momentum, while the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains around 54. The current RSI level reflects a neutral-to-positive consolidation environment, rather than a strong bearish trend. To confirm a deeper decline, sellers need a clear daily break below the 38.2% Fibonacci support level at $92.29. This decline will reveal a secondary demand target at $90.02 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement level), with a broader technical bounce target near the structural support level at $86.34. Conversely, on the upside, immediate technical resistance lies at $94.13 (50% Fibonacci retracement level). A sustained break above this resistance could reopen the path towards $95.97 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement level), followed by a higher structural supply resistance level at $98.59, and then a move towards the main cycle high at $101.93.