FX.co ★ Flokki | #Bitcoin chart analysis

Fundamental Analysis of Bitcoin Bitcoin is trading near $81,370 on a quiet Saturday, a few days after one of its sharpest macro shocks of the month . The sell-off started with inflation, since US CPI rose to 3.7% and core CPI to 2.6%, lifting expectations of a Fed rate hike, and it deepened when producer prices also ran hot. Bitcoin briefly fell to $79,800 after the PPI release, then rebounded to near $82,000. Leverage was punished as well, with nearly $1 billion liquidated in the crypto market. Institutional demand has been uneven. Bitcoin ETFs recorded $681.1 million in net outflows in the week ending October 9, and on Wednesday outflows of $261.4 million were led by Fidelity's FBTC and BlackRock's IBIT. Equity weakness added pressure, as a tech sell-off dragged on Bitcoin because of its high correlation with stocks. Friday brought some relief. Fed Chair Warsh gave no hint of a rate-hike roadmap, and traders cut the odds of an October hike to 15% from 27%, although concerns about a December hike remain. That keeps the big risk date at the Fed meeting on October 27 and 28. Bitcoin is now more than 7% below its October high of $87.3K, but it still trades above its major longer-term moving averages, so the broader structure has not broken. 1-Hour Chart Analysis On the 1-hour chart, BTC at $81,370 is easing back after a V-shaped recovery from the $79,800 low and a stall near $82,000. Price has slipped under the 5 EMA, which is turning down, but it is still holding above the 20 EMA near $81,150, so the short-term trend is a pause rather than a reversal . The recovery has produced a sequence of higher lows, which suggests that dip buyers are active, though the weekend's low volume makes every move less reliable. The first resistance is $82,000, followed by $83,000, where earlier sellers appeared. An hourly close above $83,000 with the 5 EMA crossing back above the 20 EMA would point to $84,000. On the downside, the 20 EMA and $81,000 form the first support, then $80,500 and $80,000. If hourly candles close below $80,500, the recovery would look broken, and a retest of $79,800 would be likely, with $78,000 beyond it. A practical intraday approach is to buy a dip to $81,000 with a bullish candle and a stop beneath $80,400, targeting $82,000, or to sell a rejection at $83,000 with a stop above $83,500. Weekend spikes can reverse fast, so use smaller size and avoid heavy leverage.

4-Hour Chart Analysis The 4-hour chart shows a correction that is trying to build a floor. Price is trading below the 20 EMA, which sits near $82,600 and slopes down, while the 5 EMA is beneath it, so sellers still have the short-term edge. At the same time, the market has now tested the $80,000 to $81,000 demand zone twice in a week, once during the first dip and again on the CPI and PPI shock, and buyers appeared both times. That behavior is the early shape of a base, but it needs confirmation. A 4-hour close above the 20 EMA and $83,000 would be the first real sign that the correction is ending, and it would open at $84,000, then $85,000, with the October high of $87,300 as the larger target. A close below $79,800 would invalidate the base and expose $77,500 and possibly $75,000. Momentum also deserves attention, because the RSI slipped below 50 to 45, a sign that buyers are losing control in the short term . Swing traders may prefer to accumulate in stages near $80,000 to $80,500 with a stop under $79,300, rather than buying into falling averages. The next catalysts are ETF flow data on Monday and the Fed meeting, so keep leverage low.