FX.co ★ Crude | #Bitcoin chart analysis

Bitcoin's price continued its weekly decline on Friday, falling below $82,500. Selling pressure and declining institutional investment flows continued to weaken the market's short-term momentum. Data from SoSoValue indicates that the US Bitcoin ETF is poised for its second consecutive week of net redemptions, with withdrawals totaling approximately $146.19 million as of Thursday. The primary driver of this institutional withdrawal is a series of better-than-expected US inflation data, which has revived market expectations of continued monetary tightening by the Federal Reserve. Specifically, the September Consumer Price Index (CPI) data showed that the headline inflation rate accelerated to 3.7% year-over-year, exceeding market expectations of 3.6%, while the core CPI rose slightly to 2.6%. Meanwhile, the Producer Price Index rose 1.3% month-on-month and 6.3% year-on-year, indicating that wholesale price pressures have spread beyond the volatile energy sector, leading to reduced market demand for riskier assets. Despite facing macroeconomic headwinds, companies' capital accumulation continues to provide crucial structural protection against heavy selling. On Monday, Michael Thaler Strategies announced it had spent $21.5 million to purchase 250 bitcoins at an average price of $86,194 per bitcoin, bringing its industry-leading total reserves to a record 848,250 bitcoins, valued at $64 billion, while its total dollar cash assets reached $5.5 billion. Similarly, asset management firm Strive (ASST) disclosed on Tuesday that it had purchased 3,311 bitcoins, bringing its total bitcoin holdings on its balance sheet to 32,773 bitcoins. This continued investment of capital by companies demonstrates strong institutional investor confidence in the market's long-term outlook, providing local support during the overall market correction. Furthermore, the informal conversation in Bangkok between Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh and IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva contributed to a more positive market sentiment regarding risk. Warsh noted that the US economy, since the September monetary policy meeting, has generally met the central bank's expectations, prompting the CME Group's FedWatch tool to reduce the probability of an October interest rate hike in futures contracts to around 12%. Technically, on the daily chart, Bitcoin maintains a short-term positive trend, with its spot price holding above the 50-, 100-, and 200-day exponential moving averages (EMAs). The 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) at $80,443 is providing immediate dynamic support, followed by the 100-day EMA ($76,824) and the 200-day EMA ($75,751), which form secondary support levels for the trend. Daily momentum indicators suggest weak upward momentum, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovering around 48, near neutral levels, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) below the zero line and in negative territory. On the upside, immediate horizontal resistance lies around $85,000, where selling pressure is expected to limit initial bounce attempts, followed by targets at $87,823 (50% Fibonacci retracement) and the 100-week SMA at $89,731. Conversely, if the short selling price falls below the 50-day moving average, a deeper pullback is likely, with targets at $78,661 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement) and $76,584 (50-week simple moving average), which would test the overall strength of Bitcoin’s uptrend.