FX.co ★ Fixy | XAU/USD, GOLD

The daily technical structure of the gold (XAU/USD) pair around the $4008.91 level indicates that the market is at a significant macroeconomic turning point. The price has completed a notable downtrend since reaching its all-time high of $5238.80 in March, followed by a strong recovery in August, and is currently in a second corrective wave, directly testing the major consolidation bottom. The macroeconomic structure from March to the end of July 2026 was dominated by bearish investors. After gold prices plummeted from $5129.80 to below $4080, they entered a series of lower highs, reaching $4802.80, $4693.80, $4584.80, $4366.80, and $4148.80 respectively. During this months-long decline, the dynamic resistance of the descending moving averages continued to impede all rebound attempts, while the lower Bollinger Bands moved lower, confirming the continued dominance of sellers until momentum ran out near the support zone between $3,920 and $4,039.80. From late July to early August 2026, gold entered a crucial bottoming phase near the lower demand zone between $3,920 and $4,039.80. The daily Bollinger Bands narrowed to their tightest level in months, indicating extremely low volatility, while the moving averages settled horizontally around $4,039.80. After the double bottom pattern was confirmed near $3,920, buyers launched a strong upward surge on August 6, with a large bullish candle closing above $4,148.80. This structural breakout led to a strong rally in the price of gold, which jumped from $4,039.80 to a high of $4,693.80 on August 28. This upward trend was characterized by a sustained rise in both highs ($4,257.80, $4,475.80, $4,584.80) and lows ($4,039.80, $4,257.80, $4,475.80). During this rally, the moving averages crossed upwards and rose rapidly, with the spot gold price closely tracking the upper Bollinger Band. However, after a long upper shadow appeared near $4,693.80, the upward momentum began to wane.

Since early September 2026, the spot gold price has been experiencing a second wave of downward correction, effectively erasing more than 80% of the gains made in August. The daily chart clearly shows a series of lower highs at $4584.80, $4475.80, $4366.80, and $4257.80, accompanied by lower lows extending to $4475.80, $4366.80, and $4148.80, currently testing the $4008.91 level. The moving averages formed a bearish crossover in mid-September and continue to decline above the current price action. Since early October, the price has been fluctuating near the lower Bollinger Band, confirming strong short-term selling pressure. The key level zone between $4008.91 and $4039.80 is a significant structural baseline. This zone, which formed an accumulation low in July before being broken in August, is now undergoing a technical reversal; the previous major resistance level has turned into support and is currently undergoing a crucial retest. Spot gold is currently trading around $4,008.91 per ounce, following a strong bullish breakout on the daily chart, placing its overall trend structure at a crucial crossroads. A daily close confirming a break of the accumulated support level between $4,039.80 and $4,008.91 would mean gold has fallen below its July lows for three consecutive months, effectively confirming that the rally seen in August and September was a reversal of the overall bearish market cycle that began in March. If gold fails to hold the $4,008.91 level, it is expected to decline further towards its July lows around $3,920 and the structural support level around $3,895. Conversely, for buyers to maintain the medium-term structure and form a double bottom, they must immediately reclaim the $4,039.80 level and initiate a bounce towards the recent moving average resistance zone between $4,090 and $4,148.80. If the daily closing price is above $4148.80, a higher bottom will be confirmed, paving the way for a pullback to the breakout zone at $4257.80.