FX.co ★ karl.vonrueden | Bitcoin/BTCUSD forecasts

BUY COUNTER-TREND SCALP STRATEGY BITCOIN H1 - REBOUND FROM 80,000 WITH STOCHASTIC CROSS UP CONFIRMATION TOWARDS EMA 50

This Bitcoin H1 is in a downtrend phase that is starting to weaken and has short-term reversal potential. Price is now 80,044.53 right at the psychological area of 80,000. The structure is clear. Since 24 October the price at 81,000 fell sharply to 79,200, then on 25 October rose again to 80,800 but failed to hold because it was blocked by the red EMA at 80,600. On the night of 25 October the price fell again to 79,350, and on the morning of 26 October fell again to 79,400, forming a triple bottom in the 79,300-79,400 area. Now on the afternoon of 26 October the price has risen back to 80,044 and closed above the green support line 80,000. This indicates sellers are starting to tire below 80,000 and buyers are starting to step in. Moving Average confirmation is still bearish but there are signs of a reversal. The red EMA 50 line at 80,350 has been falling continuously from 81,200 to 80,350, so it remains the main resistance. The blue EMA 200 at 81,668 is very far above, a gap of about 1,600 points, meaning the larger downtrend is still present. But note the red EMA has now begun to flatten at 80,350, no longer falling steeply like yesterday. This is an early sign that the H1 downtrend is losing momentum. As long as price remains below the red EMA 80,350, the main trend is still bearish, but counter-trend long scalping is very possible. The Stochastic 5,3,3 reading of 42.61 and 30.15 is the key signal today. The Stochastic has just risen from 20 to 42, crossing up from the oversold area. Look at the history: every time the Stochastic was below 20 and then crossed up, the price always rose at least 300-500 points. On 24 October the Stochastic at 18 rose to 90 and the price rose from 79,600 to 80,500. On 25 October the Stochastic at 20 rose to 80 and the price rose from 80,000 to 80,800. Now the Stochastic has risen again from 22 to 42; this is a valid short-term buy momentum. The best strategy is a BUY SCALP COUNTER-TREND with limited targets. Primary buy entry is at 80,000 - 80,100 currently, with Stop Loss below 79,600, i.e., below the triple bottom, a distance of about 400-500 points. First Take Profit target is at the red EMA 80,350, about 300 points; second target at 80,600-80,800 (yesterday's high area), about 600-700 points. Risk-reward 1:1.5 is still good for Bitcoin scalping. Do not buy if H1 closes below 79,300, because it will continue to 79,000. And do not sell at 80,000 because the Stochastic is rising. Selling is only valid if the price fails to break the red EMA 80,350 and the Stochastic is already above 80 and then crosses down.