FX.co ★ Crude | #Bitcoin chart analysis

The price of Bitcoin (BTC) retreated below the $80,000 mark on Friday, shedding most of its weekly gains as investors digested the Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance and a cautious macroeconomic environment. Despite the decline in spot valuations, institutional demand provided a modest buffer; Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) saw net inflows of $137.33 million on Wednesday, marking a third consecutive day of positive capital allocation. Nevertheless, overall market sentiment remains highly cautious ahead of key U.S. macroeconomic updates—specifically the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index for September and the third-quarter GDP report—which are expected to offer critical insights into economic resilience and the trajectory of inflation. At its October meeting, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark federal funds rate within the target range of 3.75% to 4.00%, though the decision was marked by internal divisions. Two committee members—Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack—opposed an immediate 25-basis-point interest rate hike. In the post-meeting press conference, Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh underscored the central bank’s firm commitment to price stability, stating that officials remain fully prepared to implement further monetary tightening should economic conditions warrant it. Warsh emphasized that the deliberations of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) focused primarily on managing persistent inflation risks. This hawkish guidance bolstered market expectations for higher long-term interest rates; according to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of a rate hike in December has risen to 79.6%. Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury yield remains above 5.0%, and the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) holds above 102.00. Consequently, rising yields and a strong dollar are exerting pressure on risk-sensitive assets, thereby constraining liquidity in the cryptocurrency market. Institutional activity, as tracked by the SoSoValue index, indicates that while Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have maintained net positive inflows, total daily flows remain low compared to previous periods characterized by significant expansion in trading volume. This cautious institutional buying reflects a "wait-and-see" approach by asset management firms, which are awaiting clearer macroeconomic signals—such as data on personal consumption expenditures and GDP—before increasing their risk exposure. A sustained acceleration in ETF inflows over the coming days could help restore market confidence and drive a technical recovery, potentially pushing prices past key psychological barriers. From a technical perspective, the decline in Bitcoin’s price to $79,882 tested the dynamic boundaries of major moving averages on the daily chart. While the overall market structure maintains its primary bullish trend—remaining above both the 100-day exponential moving average (EMA) at $77,859 and the 200-day EMA at $76,432—recent price action remains constrained by the 50-day EMA, near $80,788. Momentum indicators point to continued consolidation with a slight bearish tilt: the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dipped toward 40, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains in negative territory, signaling weak momentum. To regain market control, buyers must secure a daily close above the 50-day EMA at $80,788, which would pave the way toward resistance at the $85,000 level. Conversely, should selling pressure intensify, immediate dynamic support lies at the 100-day EMA ($77,859), followed by the 200-day EMA ($76,432). A daily breakdown below these key moving averages would disrupt the medium-term bullish framework, potentially exposing the digital asset to a more pronounced structural correction.