FX.co ★ Skull999 | XAU/USD, GOLD

Gold Daily Forecast Gold (XAU/USD) kicked off the new week with gains despite hitting a new annual low of $3,870 in the previous session. October was a tough month for the yellow metal, which closed down by 6.87%. The retreat of oil prices amid diplomatic talks between America and Iran helped lift some bids in the gold market. Currently, XAU/USD is trading at $3,900, up 0.64% for the day. The highest point reached during today's intraday trading session was at $3,919. According to Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei, exchanges between the country and the US via messaging are ongoing. This was stated on Monday when Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi was in Qatar to help start exchanges. Iran claims its offer would allow reopening of the Strait of Hormuz after only two days of negotiations, but it would require lifting the US naval blockade against Iran. WTI crude oil drops below $100 per barrel, falling about 3% during the session. Gold currently trades roughly 30% below its lifetime high near $5,600 reached in January. Since hostilities erupted between the US and Iran toward the end of February, gold has mostly been counter-correlated with oil prices, as surging oil prices inflated inflation and forced central banks, including the Fed, to tighten monetary policy. Political uncertainty and rising prices usually boost demand for gold. At the moment, the threat of rising interest rates seems much bigger than any other factor affecting gold. Indeed, gold fails to find a bid amid strong selling pressure as AI-driven tech stocks slump. Instead, investors liquidate gold positions to cover margin calls from a weakening USD and lower US Treasury rates. The USD Index (DXY) currently stands near 101.70. It trades 0.27% lower than yesterday's levels after hitting a weekly low of 101.44 during early Asian trading. In turn, 10-year US Treasury yields stand near 4.91%, close to the lowest level in seven weeks, far from the October highs of 5.36%. Market participants now focus on the November 3 mid-term elections in the USA, which may affect both the USD exchange rate and Gold prices. Investors have a full schedule of economic reports to help determine the Fed's interest rate decisions. On Monday, traders receive the ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI). On Tuesday, traders receive the JOLTS Job Openings report. On Wednesday, the ADP Employment Change and ISM Services PMI are released. Finally, on Friday, the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) comes out. In its latest policy decision meeting on October 5, the Fed unanimously decided to hold rates at 3.75-4.00%. The central bank previously hiked 25 basis points last September amid inflation fears. According to CME FedWatch, there is a 72% probability that the Fed will hike rates by 50bps in December. According to the daily chart, the price is under extreme bearish pressure and is trading at 3904 at the time of writing. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 32, above oversold territory. Similarly, the MACD stands below the zero line with a negative divergence, indicating strong bearish momentum, although the selloff seems extended. In terms of resistance, near-term resistance stands at $3950-$4000, followed by resistance at the 21-day SMA level at $4089. Beyond these resistances lies the 100-day SMA at $4209, along with higher resistance at $4400, before meeting resistance from the 200-day SMA at $4485. Near-term risk for gold leans to the downside as bulls fail to take control of these moving averages and trendlines. Near-term support for gold stands at Friday's yearly low of $3870.