FX.co ★ Flokki | EUR/USD

Fundamental Analysis of the EUR/USD EUR/USD finishes the week at 1.1142 after surrendering a full week of gains in one session. Friday's US jobs report was far stronger than forecast, with payrolls up 165K in October against an expected 65K, which lifted the dollar and erased the euro's weekly advance. The euro was already fragile, since weak Eurozone retail sales and cautious ECB commentary added to the downside pressure. The dollar's rebound followed a wobble earlier in the week, when the dollar index fell to a five-week low near 101.20 after the US midterm results and an AI-led stock-market rout, before recovering to about 102.33. Central banks are sending mixed signals. The Fed held rates at 3.75% to 4.00% on October 28 in a 10-2 vote, with both dissenters wanting a 25 basis point hike, and the market priced in about a 77% chance of a December increase. The ECB also left its deposit rate at 2.50%, but Lagarde kept a December hike firmly on the table. Euro area inflation is 3.8%, and Lagarde will leave her post in February. That leadership change adds uncertainty at a sensitive time. The pair touched about 1.1105 on October 29, its lowest since May 2025. Next week's tests are US October CPI on November 10 and PPI on November 13, which could reshape expectations for another Fed hike. 1-Hour Chart Analysis On the 1-hour chart, the 1.1142 weekly close sits just above Friday's low near 1.1132, so the market enters the weekend in the aftermath of a sharp, news-driven fall. Price is trading below both moving averages; the 5 EMA is under the 20 EMA near 1.1158, and both lines are tilted down, a bearish alignment that fits the NFP selloff. However, the last candles of the session were small, and the 5 EMA has started to flatten, which hints at selling exhaustion rather than fresh panic. The first resistance is 1.1165 to 1.1170, where the 20 EMA currently sits, then 1.1190, the area where the selloff accelerated. An hourly close above 1.1190, with the 5 EMA crossing up through the 20 EMA, would open a corrective bounce toward 1.1220. On the downside, 1.1132 is immediate support, followed by 1.1113 and 1.1104. A close beneath 1.1104 would put the year's low back under pressure. Because the market has been closed since Friday, expect a possible gap at Monday's open, and avoid chasing the first candles. A simple plan is to sell a rejection at the 20 EMA with a stop above 1.1195 and a target of 1.1110, or to wait for a confirmed break above 1.1190 before buying.

4-Hour Chart Analysis The 4-hour chart shows a pair pressed against the floor of a wider holding pattern. Price remains under the 20 EMA, which slopes down near 1.1195, and the 5 EMA is below it, so sellers keep control of the short-term trend. The larger setup is more balanced, though. The pair has been consolidating between support at 1.1104 and resistance at 1.1269, and the 1.1104 level has held back sellers twice . A third test makes the zone more important: if buyers defend it again, the range stays intact, but a 4-hour close below 1.1104 would, in the words of one analyst, invalidate the recovery scenario and signal a resumption of the medium-term decline, with 1.1050 and then 1.1000 as the next supports. For the bulls, the key trigger is 1.1269, and a breakout above it would bring 1.1314 and 1.1370 into focus. Between those boundaries, traders should treat rallies into 1.1190 to 1.1220 as areas to sell cautiously while the 20 EMA keeps falling. Because the 5 EMA is already flattening, a bullish cross would be an early warning that momentum is shifting. With US CPI due on Tuesday, keep position sizes modest, and wait for the pair to close beyond a boundary before committing to a larger move.