FX.co ★ Helsinki | EUR/USD

The euro erased every gain it had accumulated this week in a single session on Friday, tumbling to around 1.1132 and shedding 0.77% on the day, after the October nonfarm payrolls report came in far hotter than anyone had positioned for. The numbers were unambiguous. The US economy added 165,000 jobs last month, more than double the roughly 65,000 consensus, while September's increase was revised sharply higher from 29,000 to 60,000. The unemployment rate fell to 4.1% from 4.2%, and average hourly earnings rose 0.4% month-on-month against expectations of 0.3%, with the annual rate easing to 3.1% but still comfortably above the 2.9% forecast. That is not a labour market losing altitude; it is one with real momentum, and the dollar responded accordingly. The dollar index climbed 0.73% to around 102.33, a striking reversal from the five-week low near 101.20 touched earlier in the week when the midterm elections and an AI-driven equity selloff had battered the greenback. Those losses have now been fully recovered. The implication for policy is straightforward: a December hike remains firmly in play, and the committee's commitment to dragging inflation back to 2% is intact, with energy costs tied to the Middle East keeping the risks tilted upward. The euro's own data offered no counterweight. Eurozone retail sales fell 0.7% in September, worse than the 0.1% decline expected, following a 2% drop in August, and the annual rate slumped from 1.3% to just 0.4% against a 0.6% forecast. That is a consumer that has stopped spending, and it leaves the ECB in an awkward position. Chief economist Philip Lane said Friday that inflation needs to return to target within one to two years and that financial conditions have tightened, adding, "Let's collect the information now until December and see what we do in December", language that echoes Lagarde's own caution and signals a central bank in no hurry to commit.

Technically, EUR/USD at 1.1142 sits beneath all four tracked moving averages, and the way they are layered tells you exactly where the pressure originates. Read each level individually. The H1 200-period SMA at 1.1185 and the H4 50-period SMA at 1.1187 converge within two pips of each other—and that proximity is the single most important detail on the chart. When two timeframes settle that tightly, the market stops treating them as separate obstacles and defends the zone as one reinforced band, which means 1.1185–1.1187 is the decisive ceiling. Price would need to reclaim that before anything constructive can develop. Above it, the H1 50-period SMA at 1.1207 adds a second layer of resistance, confirming that overhead territory is crowded. Highest of all sits the H4 200-period SMA at 1.1237, roughly 95 pips above price, representing the broader structural barrier that would require a genuine trend shift rather than a corrective bounce. There is no dynamic support beneath current levels at all, which means the downside is defined entirely by horizontal zones. Horizontal support begins at 1.1120, just beneath price, followed by 1.1100, a psychologically significant round number where buyers have historically appeared, then 1.1080, with 1.1050 marking a deeper demand area. Horizontal resistance starts at 1.1160, then the 1.1185–1.1187 confluence, followed by 1.1207 and 1.1237 beyond. Two paths are worth mapping. If buyers reclaim 1.1187 and close above it, the pair could extend toward 1.1207 and then test 1.1237, and a daily close above that band would be the first credible evidence the post-payrolls slide has run its course. If 1.1120 gives way under sustained selling, expect a slide toward 1.1100 and then 1.1080, which would leave every average firmly overhead and hand full control to the dollar. The bias stays bearish while price trades beneath the full stack, and with roughly 22 pips of support beneath against 43 pips to the first real resistance, the near-term picture rests entirely on whether that 1.1100 round number holds as markets digest a jobs report that has comprehensively reset the rate narrative.