FX.co ★ sufiasharmin | #Bitcoin chart analysis

As we see the Bitcoin pair is currently trading around $68,328.15 on the 1-hour chart , extending a five-week corrective downturn that has driven the asset down from its failed breakout attempts above $85,000 into its lowest valuation range since August 2026. On the 1-hour chart, price action exhibits a clear bearish sequence of lower highs and lower lows trading firmly beneath a descending moving average line hovering near $68,850, following an aggressive intraday rejection from the $70,133.80 swing high during the November 13 session. Fundamentally, this sustained downward pressure stems from a convergence of macroeconomic headwinds, institutional capital outflows, and exchange counterparty concerns. A hotter-than-expected October U.S. Consumer Price Index report—featuring notable jumps in energy, gasoline, and food costs alongside a strong employment backdrop—has reinforced expectations for additional Federal Reserve interest rate hikes, strengthening the U.S. Dollar and raising the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding digital assets. Simultaneously, institutional demand has reversed sharply, with U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds recording $1.6 billion in cumulative net outflows over the past twenty sessions—including a record weekly redemption of approximately $1.28 billion led by $1.21 billion exiting BlackRock’s IBIT—while total stablecoin supply contracted by $14.2 billion over thirty days, marking its fastest liquidity drain since June 2022. Compounding these macro and liquidity pressures, markets continue to digest the aftershocks of the $6.3 billion Binance security incident and cascading derivatives liquidations exceeding $1 billion over a 24-hour window as Bitcoin lost the psychological $70,000 threshold, leaving spot order books thin above current price and forcing buyers to defend the August breakout shelf between $67,000 and $68,000.

Technical indicator readings and smart money liquidity footprints on both the 1-hour chart and higher timeframes confirm heavy bearish control paired with signs of short-term seller exhaustion. On the H1 chart, the 14-period Average Directional Index (ADX) stands at 22.24, cooling off steadily from elevated readings above 70 earlier on November 13, which signals that the initial impulsive trend momentum is decelerating into a lower-volatility consolidation phase. Directional movement lines remain tightly compressed with -DI at 19.74 holding a slight advantage over +DI at 18.99, confirming that sellers retain marginal directional control beneath the declining moving average. Across the broader daily structure, Bitcoin trades well below its 200-day moving average and key broken structural supports at $75,000, $73,795, $73,000, and the $70,000 psychological floor. On the 1-hour timeframe specifically, sellers broke decisively through the $68,973 to $69,171 consolidation shelf during the November 13 22:00 session, printing a large-bodied bearish displacement candle that left behind an unmitigated Bearish Fair Value Gap between $68,450 and $68,900, capped by a Bearish Order Block at $68,970 to $69,170. Earlier in the session, candlestick behavior highlighted a textbook liquidity engineering sequence: the November 13 14:00 candle printed an elongated upper wick piercing above $70,133 to sweep buy-side stops before reversing sharply downward, whereas the most recent candles on November 14 between 00:00 and 02:00 formed a long lower-wick rejection near the $67,850 intraday low followed by small-bodied indecision candles around $68,328. Throughout this decline, retail traders fell into classic bull and bear traps—first buying premature breakouts above $69,000 and $70,000 right into institutional supply, and subsequently chasing late breakdown shorts below $68,200 directly into the $67,850 demand pocket. Looking ahead, the immediate upside aim is a corrective relief retest into the $68,700 to $69,170 Bearish Fair Value Gap and Order Block zone, whereas a confirmed breakdown below $67,850 and the $67,000 higher-timeframe shelf exposes the $65,000 origin of the August rally as the next major downside target. Navigating this thin-liquidity environment safely requires executing trades only after institutional inducement sweeps have cleared obvious liquidity pools and confirmed structural intent via candlestick closures. Because the prevailing H1 and daily trends remain bearish beneath $69,171 and $75,000 respectively, the highest-probability setup is a trend-continuation short following a controlled upward retracement. Rather than shorting blindly at current market levels near $68,328—where risk-to-reward is compromised by nearby support—traders should allow price to rally into the $68,700 to $68,950 confluence zone, where the November 13 22:00 Bearish Fair Value Gap intersects the descending moving average. Watch for price to engineer buy-side inducement by wicking briefly above the $68,973 broken support shelf to trigger breakout buyers and tight short stops, followed immediately by a confirmed 1-hour bearish engulfing candle, shooting star, or evening star formation closing back below $68,750. Upon that bearish candle close, enter short with a protective stop-loss placed strictly above the $69,250 Bearish Order Block high, scaling out partial profits at the $68,011 equal-low liquidity pool and targeting $67,000 to $65,000 if downward displacement resumes. Conversely, a counter-trend scalp long should only be attempted if sellers first drive price below the $67,850 session wick low to sweep resting sell-side liquidity and immediately reclaim $68,200 with a high-volume 1-hour bullish engulfing or morning star reversal candle, using a tight stop-loss beneath $67,650 and exiting into the $68,700 to $68,900 Fair Value Gap resistance. To systematically avoid institutional inducement traps, never execute market orders on the first touch of a clean horizontal support or resistance line or mid-candle during rapid spikes; always wait for the 1-hour candle body to close beyond the level after visibly sweeping adjacent wick highs or lows.